inside out

The piper calls the tune and we pay

2012-01-27T20:08:00.001Z

Afair-sized dollop of what ConDem spinners were peddling earlier in the week about cracking down onexecutive pay splashed back on them big-time today following the announcementof a £963,000 bonus for RBS chief executive Stephen Hester.

Chancellor George Osborne claimed the decision had been taken bythe board who were powerless to change the terms of a contract agreed by thelast Labour government and which "determined" bonus arrangements.

Labour insist that there is nothing in Mr Hester’s employmentterms which binds the company or its remuneration committee to pay a mandatorybonus. They have wheeled out a number of mouthpieces to say the same thingseveral different way.

Perhapsit is a simplistic way of looking at things but the government has an 82%controlling stake in RBS. This is a serious majority in anyone’s estimation andsuch a shareholding surely gives ministers a final say in how much is paid. Andyet the only active criterion has been an indirect statement by David Cameronthat the figure should be “below the £1million mark”.

However, an insight into the dislocated thinking that still prevails from the cabinet down is the statement by tory MP Mark Field who feels MrHester should not be "vilified" as he is responsible for managing£45bn of public money.

Some might say in response that it is Mr Field and his coalition colleagues who hold that particular remit - and that they are doing a spectacularly crap job of it.

Just the tip of the third sector iceberg?

2012-01-27T09:15:00.000Z

Dragon's Eye notwithstanding, the calls for a police investigation into management dealings at Awema have ramped up a spate of associated accusations that official intervention into the Swansea-based race relations group should have come a lot sooner.

As yet, press releases issued by opposition AMs are highly critical of the "Welsh Government" but have stopped short of making accusations that it was Labour links which forestalled previous attempts to uncover the extent of management & financial problems. They are probably hoping that the Welsh media will make the connections unaided.

If further prompting is needed however then Swansea's Lib Dems will be eager to assist. At least one of their number sees it as an opportunity to regain lost moral high ground following recent serious question marks against their own probity in local public affairs.

What is apparent in the broader context of the events at Awema is the level of seemingly unquestioning dependence the Welsh Government is willing to place upon a range of agencies and charitable bodies to deliver its diverse social and economic agenda.

An absence of effective accountability at the funding level means that the same shortcomings claimed to have beset this particular organisation can probably be seen to varying degrees within dozens of other public bodies where 'leadership' is confused with obfuscation and misconduct, e.g. Plas Madoc Communities First.

Charges of cronyism are familiar in politics and the phenomenon has gained greater prominence in the public eye in recent times. What is less clearcut for many politicians - and is something that should be the subject of Assembly scrutiny - is the extent to which patronage still plays a part in appointments and endorsements within Wales' so-called third sector.

The alternative is a succession of further disclosures of misconduct and/or mismanagement with everyone involved, from the minister down, being that much wiser after the event.

A little out of touch

2012-01-26T23:48:00.000Z

Every so often, Swansea’s local paperinadvertently reminds its readership that it shares the same owners (andegalitarian values) as the Daily Mail.

Today’s example is an editorial lament thatprivate schools have all but disappeared in the city. Describing the problem asa shrinking market, the paper nonetheless comments robustly how “there arestill parents who prefer to pay for a child’s education.”

Whether local families who cannot evenafford to pay for books are meant to empathise with this viewpoint is unclear.

Update: thanks to Ceillog for spell-checking.

A funny way to do business

2012-01-26T09:22:00.001Z

Atelling question came this morning from BBC breakfast news presenter SimonMcCoy to Nick Clegg over his calls to the coalition government to speed up raising tax thresholds to £10,000 a year.

“How can you call for the government todo something? You’re deputy Prime Minister. You are the government!” came thequery.

Clegg never quite managed to answerthe question - other than to say it was in the Lib Dem manifesto. But so were commitments not to raise VAT and tuition fees.

Update: and then there's the Mansion Tax again.

Wanted: better politicians

2012-01-23T21:30:00.000Z

The man who savaged Paxman is clearly prepared to show similar assertiveness towards lacklustre Plaid politicians.

Plaid policy adviser Eurfyl ap Gwilymdescribes himself as “very critical” of some candidates, adding that some inthe party had to "pull up theirsocks".

His review findings are that "too manyparty spokespersons appeared to lack both competence and confidence inpresenting our policies".

He quite reasonably goes on to say how"it should be a precondition that they develop a sound understanding oftheir own brief but should also be briefed on the full range of partypolicies".

It is interesting to see that there has beenno undue disagreement with this assessment from within Plaid. Similarly, thelack of adverse comment from other parties might suggest that they recognise someof the symptoms in themselves.

Nonetheless, it is refreshing to see a contemporarypolitical organisation doing what it said it would do in conducting awarts-and-all review. All it needs now is a leader with the presentationalqualities Dr ap Gwilym specifies to put things right.

Paddy walks the talk

2012-01-22T14:42:00.002Z

Discredited claims by Lib Dem ministers of being amitigating influence on tory excesses in government were finally andeffectively buried by the mealy-mouthedjustification from Nick Clegg as to why he backs Ian Duncan Smith’sproposed cap on benefits.

It must have been very hard for rank andfile Liberal Democrats to watch their leader refusing to reconsider anexemption for child benefit and rejecting suggestions that even the Department of Work & Pensions admits the changes will result in hardship for thousands of families.

Few activists will feel able to argue the same caseon the doorstep with even fewer convinced that expedient talk about “transitionalarrangements” is halfway credible.

The bad news for Clegg is that Paddy Ashdownis among the doubters.

Lobbyists do the business on government

2012-01-21T10:19:00.001Z

AfterFoxGate and all the subsequent assurances of a government clean upof Britain's dodgy lobbying industry, ConDem proposals to create astatutory register have been dismissed by campaigners who described theplans as "fundamentally flawed".

Anumber of newspapers speculate that senior Conservative ministers blocked plansfor the reform.

The Independentreports that companies who employ lobbyists directly will not be required toregister their work on a new statutory register of lobbyists. Neitherwill lobbyists need to declare which areas of policy they are hoping toinfluence or say how much they are paid for their work, as minister feel thiswould be "too great an administrative burden".

Theproposals which are out to consultation put a serious question mark against thecredibility of David Cameron’s promise to push through a clean up of theindustry in the wake of revelations about dubious links between seniorpoliticians and leading lobbying firms.

Theissue was highlighted recently following a Whitehall standards committee reportthat one of the PM’s former advisors has swapped his desk in Downing Street to one in aprestigious public affairs firm without observing the obligatory employmentbreak. Needless to say, no action was taken.

Assuch, few can claim to be gob-smacked that proposals do not make a case for astatutory code of conduct, as demanded by Lib Dem coalition partners and Labouropposition MPs.

Pressurewill mount on Nick Clegg and Business Secretary Vince Cable as to whether theysupport the views of Mark Harper, the Constitutional Reform minister, who saidhe "did not want the new rules to be overly bureaucratic"

Meanwhile,the Guardian maintains that tradeunions, charities and think-tanks could be forced to sign up to a new statutoryregister. Those who deliberately fail to comply may face up to two yearsin prison.

Turning blue

2012-01-20T09:28:00.001Z

The decision by Welsh Conservatives to cancel their pre-election conference in Llandudno has reportedly been greeted with a mixture of disappointment and relief among the faithful. The talk is that very few thought that a trek to the seaside to hear Cheryl Gillan's prattle was worth the cost & effort given the protest vote the party is likely to suffer in May.

However it seems that organisers failed to notify the staff of a certain Welsh tory MP who thought he was going to be one of the keynote speakers. He is said to have provided a 'colourful' response to press who told him the news late yesterday.

Protesters demand council leader's resignation

2012-01-19T23:39:00.002Z

Members of Occupy Swansea managed to make their presence felt at Calamity Hall today - so much so that it took two successive evictions by the police to get rid of them so that a council meeting could continue.

A small group entrenched themselves in the public gallery and loudly demanded the resignation of council leader Chris Holley. They also distributed leaflets which accused Holley, his deputy John Hague and acting tory group leader Paxton Hood-Williams of "corruption" in relation to a police investigation into alleged misconduct.

The council leader was visibly peeved at the interruptions and demanded that the protesters be removed. The meeting was put on hold whilst security staff tried to shift them. They gave up after a few feeble attempts and the cops were finally called in.

There was an cheerful outbreak of cross-party bravado when the meeting resumed but the clash seemed to have unnerved councillors to the extent that the proceedings were brought to a conclusion in record time. (officers are said to be hoping that the protesters turn up for the next meeting too).

Strangely though, and perhaps it was just a case of people wanting to rush through the agenda before the protesters reappeared, it was noticeable that an item to confirm Desperate Den as Swansea's next first citizen was quickly put on hold for six weeks. Or will it turn out to be considerably longer?

Update: EP version of events

In the splatter zone

2012-01-19T16:42:00.001Z

The inevitable political undertones have begun to emerge as pressure mounts on the "appropriate authorites" to dump Naz Malik, the embattled chief executive of the All Wales Ethnic Minority Association (AWEMA).

The list of trangressions included in a 'confidential' internal report presented to the charity's board appear to constitute gross misconduct and highlight that suspension is warranted. Yet the most noticeable activity has been how a number of individuals have very quickly distanced themselves from matters.

From what we hear, one or two of those demanding an enquiry were only recently backing a major funding application by the racial equality group.

It could all get very messy.

Questions over stadium freebies about to kick off

2012-01-18T20:26:00.000Z

As Swansea Council begins the onerous taskof putting together an austerity budget for the city, an interesting nuggetappears in the agenda that points to how some individuals in the politicalfood chain are not tightening their belts as much as they require of others.

A response to a question tabled by oppositioncouncillors reveals that whilst essential services have been either cut back orsold off in the last two years to make “savings”, a select few civic nobs havebeen enjoying the high life at Swansea’s Liberty Stadium.

A published list of hospitalityinvitations shows that Lib Dem council leader Chris Holley acceptedand/or attended over eighty invitations to Swans and Ospreys home fixtures with all the trimmings and a range of other freebie non-sporting events. A number of cabinet cronies are also named asenjoying hospitality on the house.

We’re given to understand that the list hascreated puzzlement among some observers inasmuch as CH in particular is recorded as acceptinginvitations from third parties on a few occasions when he is also supposed tohave been hosting his own ~~piss-up~~ reception in the council’s privatebox. No doubt this confusion will soon be ~~investigated~~ cleared up.

One or two cynics might speculate that thislargesse explains why the sporting clubs have allegedly not paid a penny in rent sincethe stadium was built. Others might claim that is simply another case of civicsnouts in the trough.

Whatever the reasoning offered, what cannotbe ignored is that Holley & Co have been enjoying a good time at somebody else’sexpense whilst telling the media how the local authority is “skint” withthe result that hundreds of council staff have been forced to take redundancy.

Lib Dem council colleague Peter Black has recentlybeen (rightly) gettinganimated about lavish subsidies enjoyed by MPs in Westminster. We waitto see if he is just as critical of how his buddies have been taking a Liberty.

Somehow we doubt it.

Update (19 Jan): Picking up rumours of small-scale rioting in the council chamber at Calamity Hall. Protestors demanding Holley's resignation. Security has been called.

more to follow

Choice of directions - or directionless?

2012-01-17T19:59:00.002Z

Welsh journalists are quietly waiting for their leaked copy of Plaid Cymru's policy review to arrive.

Although the party has declined to publish the review on-line (before hard copies are distributed to members), it is expected that carefully selected sections will appear in tomorrow's press - and some of it will not be what the hierarchy are presently quoting.

There are already rumblings that the review is a backward step in some respects and likely to deepen schisms among forward thinking & traditionalist factions within Plaid. One comment already heard is that the document with 95 recommendations and which talks a lot about clarity is somewhat lacking itself in spelling out the actual direction that the Party of Wales should be taking.

One Plaid activist has tweeted that he feels the result is "a road is obscured by signposts" - the rest of us will just have to wait and see.

Does Swansea top the snooper's league?

2012-01-17T19:39:00.000Z

We've received a note from an anonymous source who insists that it is Swansea Council - and not Caerphilly - who can claim the accolade of being the highest spending local authority in Wales when it comes to employing snoopers.

Swansea failed to respond to an enquiry by BBC Wales but the allegation is that it has spent considerable sums in recent years on paying private firms to check into cases ranging from fraud to environmental breaches.

The council has previously used it own people but redundancies mean a shortage of trained staff. It is alleged in the email we've received that the combination of in-house and external investigators makes Swansea's overall bill much higher than the £99,995 reportedly spent by Plaid-controlled Caerphilly.

For the moment we have no way of knowing one way or another. What will it take for the council's Lib Dem-led administration to come clean?

Keep your friends close ...

2012-01-16T11:58:00.003Z

It is rather endearing to see local loyalist MPs declare their support for struggling Ed Miliband. In a rare instance of political reporting, the Beans on Toast has been asking the usual suspects if they think that the Labour leader is in trouble with just 17 per cent of people seeing him as prime minister material.

Ed's friends in Neath and Swansea dismiss the polls and claim that by-election results show he's doing just fine. The responses however would probably have been a little more credible if they did not appear to have compared notes beforehand.

Another call to alms

2012-01-15T13:31:00.000Z

We’re told that Swansea’s first citizenseems to have a popularity problem -

and that his charity fund-raising efforts are suffering as aresult.

Having 'endeared'himself to colleagues a few years back, present mayoral incumbent IoanRichard has apparently forgotten that he only got his role on seniority and isnow reportedly complaining of a consistently poor turnout by councillors to civic events alongwith little support for his fundraising efforts.

A planned carol concert at the MansionHouse was cancelled when ticket sales failed to reach double figures and nowthe annual black-tie charity ball at the Brangwyn Hall has been downgraded to a dinner with auction.

The official line is that the change isintended to make the event “more accessible” but we hear that several bigsponsors had already pulled out.

No reason has been specified but the feelingin some quarters is that His Worship has done little to disguise his eagerness topublicise his good works in advance of May’s elections. Pity.

CPS to get report on Swansea councillors

2012-01-11T08:36:00.001Z

It seems that events have progressed faster than expected in the "roads for votes" scandal which has seen Swansea's top councillors under police investigation for alleged misconduct.

The Beans on Toast provides a matter of fact account this morning that South Wales Police have now passed their findings onto the ~~Criminal~~ Crown Prosecutions Service (CPS) - thus clarifying that criminal investigation have been undertaken into the actions of council leader Chris Holley, his deputy John Hague and senior tory Paton Hood-Williams.

An ombudsman's investigation into allegations that money was to be made available to certain tory-held wards in return for support for the Lib Dem Independent coalition at crucial votes was put on hold when the case was also referred to the police. The alleged breach of the local government code of conduct was reported by the council's chief executive following complaints from a councillor and a member of the public.

Despite the seriousness of the situation, Swansea's Lib Dems - and Peter Black in particular - have consistently attempted to play down matters with the local media in the role of willing accomplice until quite recently. It took a BBC news item before the issue went public locally.

Even so, the threadbare state of accountability among Swansea's political landscape means it is unlikely that today's news will change matters. The Lib Dems have declined to suspend Holley from office whilst Hague is an independent. Welsh Conservatives have suspended Hood-Williams but the local group has decided to ignore the decision.

Somehow the expression "Swansea deserves better" just doesn't cover it on this occasion.

A question not yet asked

2012-01-10T09:30:00.000Z

It is has been enlightening to see how many think it is worth overplaying accusations of government ‘interference’ in the setting the time and scope of the referendum over independence for Scotland.

The Guardian reports “Britain's pro-union parties were struggling on Monday to present a united front on the proposed referendum on Scottish independence amid Liberal Democrat and Labour dismay over Downing Street's handling of the announcement”.

Yet whilst there is doubtlessly some tactical machinations on Whitehall’s part, the undeniable constitutional situation is that it is Westminster which holds lordship (quite literally) over sanctioning the ways and means of separation.

The most recent contemporary example is that it was Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan, and not Carwyn Jones, who originally announced that the ‘powers’ referendum for Wales would be held between January and March 2011. The actual date became 3 March 2011 after representations to the Welsh Secretary from the Welsh Government.

For governments, regional and national, referenda have become democratically symbolic devices whereby populations are given the impression that they are actually influencing affairs. Yet what neither administration has yet flagged up is the extent to which independence for Scotland also means the dissolution of the Acts of Union and its associated baggage – and thereby comes the real rub for both parliaments.

Of course, there might actually be a substantial majority who would prefer to see Balmoral become a holiday home complex and leisure park. Or is that treason?

Kelvin says “hit ‘em where it hurts”

2012-01-09T19:06:00.002Z

FormerSun editor and dysfunctional moral guardian Kelvin MacKenzie today entertained the Leveson inquirywith his ~~bullshit~~ bullish outlook on madcap matters in the newsindustry.

At timeshis evidence session was like one of those artless reality shows where awashed-up comedian is put through a series of mild indignities in unfamiliarsurroundings. But the Grub Street man showed himself unrepentant and irredeemablewith his embarrassingly dated, offensive material – plus an excruciating JohnMajor impersonation.

MacKenzie, who has a spot of previous in relation to misrepresentation did however display disarming honesty when asked by Robert Jay QC whether he had any regard for privacy whileeditor. He answered: "Not really, no."

His most useful contribution to an otherwise uninformativeego-fest was to urge the inquiry to recommend the introduction of statutoryfines for newspapers that failed to meet standards set by the PCC or whateverorganisation replaced it.

Mr MacKenzie did little to endear himself to the inquiry orthose who have been urging a curb on media excesses. He tried hard to live upto his reputation of being an in-your-face example of the old school wherejournalism is little more than erudite thuggery. So much so that he had alreadylost his audience by the time he came to make his telling comment that the perceptionof what was in the public interest differed depending on which newspaperpublished a story.

Thenagain, this is the same man who when confronted about the number of stories hehad manufactured in the past, including the accusation that Liverpool fans hadstolen items from the dead at Hillsborough said: “When I published thosestories, they were not lies. They were great stories that later turned out tobe untrue — and that is different. What am I supposed to feel ashamed about?”

Opinion will remain divided as to whether it was a highlight or a low point in the proceedings so far. But it did serve to bring to mind the comments of a contemporary who once observed: "Kelvin likes to have his 15 minutes. The only trouble is that its always the same bloody 15 minutes".

Danny Alexander endorses Thatcher

2012-01-09T08:38:00.002Z

Those Lib Dems who continue to feebly insist that they are ingovernment to lessen tory excesses had the rug pulled from under them over theweek end by Treasury secretary Danny Alexander

Alexander, who was one of the main proponents of a post-electioncoalition with the Conservatives in 2010, said: "Margaret Thatcher'slegacy is one which looms large over politics today."

He added that the question of whether the Iron Lady wouldreceive a state funeral would be "properly debated" but she had done"many good things".

He was speaking after ConDem promises tocurb executive pay have been greeted with some scepticism. The idea of givingshareholders a veto over pay increases has been ridiculed by financial analystswho point out that most major shareholdings are controlled by institutions who perpetuatethe same high-roller culture.

Gillan going gone?

2012-01-07T10:39:00.002Z

Accordingto the Beeb and others, agovernment-backed report has given the clearest signal yet that a newhigh-speed rail line between London and Birmingham will be approved.

It rejects alternatives favoured by opponents of the £17bn HS2scheme on the basis that both would cause major disruption without solving thelonger-term need for greater capacity.

A final decision is to be announced by transport secretaryJustine Greening next week but high profile support from business leadersand political groups suggests that the green light is imminent.

This is bad news for Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan who hasopposed the route on the grounds that it affects her Chesham & Amershamconstituents. She now faces a decision as to whether she will support theproposals once they become government policy or step down from the cabinet.

Early indications were that she would take the latter option ofresigning although aides subsequently stated that comment either way would"not help matters”. She has since been keeping her powder dry.

No-one in the Welsh media as yet seems to have flagged up the implications but we can expect speculation to grow over the weekend.

Pointless

2012-01-06T16:22:00.000Z

Hat tip to Political Scrapbook

ConDems creating homelessness in Wales

2012-01-06T08:58:00.000Z

Wales will be worsthit by housing benefit changes imposed by the ConDem coalition in Westminster,according to a national housing organisation.

The Chartered Institute of Housing estimates that over 30,000 rented homes in wales will beout of the reach of people on housing benefit because of an upper limit to beimposed on benefit levels. From this month, housing benefit payments will becapped - from £250 a week for one-bedroom homes to £400 for a four-bed.

The CIH warns of adramatic shortage of homes to rent in some places and that demand will outstripsupply in all but two of Wales' 22 councils. There are also warnings of morehomelessness and empty properties as landlords evict current tenants no longerable to pay market rents.

The government saysits reforms are intended to “restore fairness” to a system that has"spiralled out of control" but homelessness and housing charities strongly disagree.

CIH Cymru policy andpublic affairs manager Vikki Hiscocks said: "these changes have a worseimpact in Wales compared to other parts of the UK in terms of the imbalancebetween supply and demand they create.

"The humanconsequences of the changes will be immense with thousands of people unable toaccess local housing and forced to migrate raising the possibility of creatingbenefit ghettos."

Caroline Rees from Shelter Cymru stated that the charity was trying to get early advice andinformation to vulnerable people to help avoid the trauma of eviction andhomelessness. She warned that the moves would see an increase in associatedcosts on local authorities and other statutory services.

Amanda Oliver, headof policy and research for the Community Housing Cymru group, said herorganisation considered the clampdown would have “a devastating effect on thepoorest and most vulnerable people in wales”. She said they would continue towork with partners to mitigate the worst effects on tenants."

Bycomparison, the contribution by Peter Black, Welsh Liberal Democrat 'shadowminister for housing was to to issue a press statement last month that"successive Labour governments have failed to tackle the housingcrisis".

Bad for business

2012-01-05T23:23:00.000Z

Itappears that Messers Cameron and Clegg have been troubled by pronounced criticism from the Federation of Small Businesses at ConDem proposals to make a revenue stream out of their members.

Tory MPs have joined FSB representatives inslagging off government officials for ‘harassing’ small firms while taking asoft approach to the tax liabilities of major companies like Goldman Sachs.

HMRC intends to inspect up to 20,000 firmsfrom April to check if they can validate previous tax returns with audited paperworkgoing back several years. Companies unable to meet the requirements of the businessrecords checks face fines of up to £3,000, just as many small businesses are strugglingto remain trading.

Unable or unwilling to publically backtrack on the clearlycontroversial plans, Dave & Nick put out press releases today emphasising (again) their serious intent to spread the pain by including big business in the crackdown.

Speaking to an audience ofsmall business sector leaders, the PM insisted that a "tougher approach"was needed towards large firms with "fancy corporate lawyers". Hisaudience seemed unimpressed with the assurances with several points made from the floor on how corporations were being allowed to stall on outstanding payments whilst small companies were being dragged in court.

A spokesman for Federation of Small Businesses stated, "Wehave spoken to HMRC and expressed our concerns about this a number of times. There is a huge difference between the rhetoric of the government abouthelping small businesses and what it is doing in reality."

Scrap the front page

2012-01-05T10:01:00.003Z

Sources at cash-strapped Calamity Hall tellus that the council’s propaganda rag, SwanseaLeader, is facing the financial axe. The bi-monthly publication, whichexists to tell the city’s residents how fantastically well their localauthority performs, could be gone before May’s elections.

We’re told that an internal spending reviewsigned off in order to achieve a range of savings included an intent to somehowmake the paper self-financing. Strangely, the money raising idea did not extendto commercial advertising even though the paper is delivered free to just under100,000 households. As a result, next month’s budget is expected to recommendceasing publication.

As far as the council’s ruling group areconcerned, the paper ceased serving any meaningful purpose once the formerchief executive ruled that all the embarrassing political self-praise should bestripped from its pages. At its height, one six-page edition was found tocontain 15 separate quotes attributed to Lib Dem leader Chris Holley. His deputygot eight mentions. Other cabinet members had another eight between them.

The paper is now ‘depoliticised’ to theextent that the latest helpful edition does not even contain contact detailsfor local councillors.

It is understood that a discussion papercurrently in circulation recommends that SwanseaLeader is transformed into an on-line publication with multi-media options.The move will be packaged as a ‘service modernisation’.

We suspect that that the proposed actionwill be greeted with quiet satisfaction at the Beans on Toast who have hatedthe council freebie and all its works since it started publication in 2004.

Some of those lower down the political foodchain also see a potential tactical advantage. A Lib Dem backbencher whoregards himself as an opinion-former is supposed to have told some cronies “Labour’slot introduced the paper. If we scrap it and they get elected then they willhave to find the money at the expense of some other service [to bring it back]”.

It’s an interesting insight – if only forhis apparently negative view as to what May’s elections might bring. Howeverit’s one that misses the fact that Labour eager beavers tried gettingrid of the paper a year ago but were ignored by the ruling parties atthe time. Their leader will doubtlessly be making this point come the budget debate, at length.

Families pay the cost of ConDem policies

2012-01-04T10:25:00.000Z

Promises by ConDems that families withchildren would be protected from tax & benefit changes have proven to be hollowas evidence is published showing who will be hardest hit.

A report by the Familyand Parenting Institute (FPI) says the average income of householdswith children will drop by 4.2% between 2010-11 and 2015-16, the equivalent of£1,250 a year.

Government sources claim that "practical steps" arebeing planned such as cuts in fuel duty and income tax. Yet the charity statesthat average household income will still fall 0.9%, or £215 a year.

Among the findings are that

The median (middle) household with children faces an average drop in income of 4.2 per cent by2015-16, equivalent to an annual income drop of £1,250 for a couple with twochildren. The 4.2 per cent average drop for families with children issignificantly higher than the loss for the median household overall, which is0.9 per cent. This is equivalent to a reduction in annual income of £215 for acouple without children.

Families with children under five will experience asignificant financial hit. Between 2010-11and 2015-16, 500,000 more children will fall into absolute poverty as definedby the Child Poverty Act (2010), where the poverty line is fixed at 60% of themedian income in 2010–11. 300,000 of these children come from households wherethe youngest child is under five. The median household with a child under fivefaces a drop in income of 4.9 per cent by 2015-16.

Larger families will suffer a disproportionate financialhit. For example, the medianhousehold with three children see their income fall by 6.8 per cent by 2015-16,compared to the median household with one child which sees it fall by 3.3 percent.

These patterns havea differential impact on children from ethnic minority groups who tendto have more children per family. For example, the absolute and relativepoverty rates for Pakistani and Bangladeshi children increases by more than 5percentage points by 2015-16(the relative increase is from 49.2 per cent to54.6 per cent and the absolute increase is from 49.2 per cent to 55.8 percent).

The basis for the estimates come from the Institute for FiscalStudies who have been a persistent thorn in the government’s backside of by itsrepeated challenges on treasury strategy on deficit reduction.

The IFS described chancellor George Osborne’s package of publicspending cuts as regressive in terms of personal income levels. This assertion wasloudly rubbished by various ConDem mouthpieces at the time (including a few in Wales)although the voices were considerably more muted when officials recently madethe quiet admission that the programme was ‘possibly regressive in somerespects’.

It will be instructive to see if the same usual suspects rush toattack the statement by charity spokesperson Katherine Rake who says theresearch “confirms that families with children are shouldering adisproportionate burden”.

Most likely is that they will simply ignore it.

Plaid Cymru at the crossroads

2012-01-03T12:32:00.003Z

The inherent dangers of cut-and-paste journalism are embarrassingly apparent this morning in that coverage of Plaid’s leadership contest on the Western Mail’s WalesOnline website appears to be an unedited regurgitation of the party’s press statement. A more balanced account is provided by BBC Wales where the emphasis is upon people rather than fanciful descriptions of process.

It is interesting however from reading the WM version that Plaid Cymru’s chief executive Rhuanedd Richards is happy to go on record as stating the leadership contest is an opportunity to recruit new members. In fact, if you join the Party of Wales in the next three weeks you can still have a vote. Ms Richards describes the inducement as “innovative” but we suspect that it will be called something else by different factions.

Many will want to take matters up a few notches by emphasising to party, press and public that it is not simply about cashing in on a process of finding a stand-in for Adam Price.

Whilst the headline activity in coming weeks is about choosing a leader no-one is at all confused that the underlying business is about choosing a destination for the Party of Wales.

A substantial number of activists and opinion-formers are convinced that the key to electoral resurgence is an unequivocal commitment to independence. They put forward compelling arguments that it not just a fundamental tenet behind Plaid’s existence but a valid alternative to the negative campaigning that cost the party so much support last May. At least two out of the four contenders who have declared so far appear to be in this camp.

Factionalism is never far below the surface in Plaid and the general view is that a unity candidate is unlikely to emerge. There is also a contradictory aspect to the Party of Wales in that they habitually call for strong leadership from other parties but go apoplectic when practical politics dictates their own top person must take a different direction, e.g. IWJ and Wylfa.

Putting the party back on a solid ideological footing and making it electable where it matters is no small task for a new leader. But if you read some of what senior people now say, it is hard to decide whether the present incumbent ever made much of an effort in that direction either.

Plaid are approaching a crossroads. What they now need to decide is whether they plan to move forward.

Musical chairs and squeaky bums

2012-01-02T15:19:00.000Z

'Tis rumoured that it is actually Lib Dems rather than Labour who are belatedly pressing for the brakes to go onto proposals for a 25% cull of the present 40 Welsh parliamentary seats. Among those calling for a rethink are the Swansea contingent who reportedly argue that the three-into-two scenario most likely to be imposed on the city's existing constituencies will see the demise of the "winnable" Swansea West.

They are probably right on paper but in light of their dismal performance in May 2011 and the drubbing they were given by Labour's new boy Geraint Davies the year before, the notion of any future Lib Dem win in the city is increasingly aspirational. Party strategists in Cardiff will be saying as much and looking at how to hang on to whatever is left of Cardiff Central.

Plaid are also said to be having second thoughts now that projections show them as losing two of their current three seats, electoral revival notwithstanding. Even some tories are privately wondering if AV would have been a better bet for survival in some cases although they are generally seen as the main net beneficiaries.

As you would expect, the main areas of real concern are going to be the degree to which Assembly constituencies mirror their Westminister counterparts, if at all. Indeed, we should expect this to become the key aspect in coming months as furthe policy deals unfold in Cardiff Bay.

The actual benefit to Welsh electors from having less MPs to represent their interests in Westminster - whilst managing much bigger constituencies - is something that ConDems have not managed (or bothered) to explain as yet. It has something to do with greater fairness, apparently.

Of course, one advantage is that we'll be seeing a lot less of them if the future model of local representation is the one set by tory MEP Kay Swinburne.

Retrospectives

2011-12-31T16:44:00.002Z

For many in political and public life, 2011 is unlikely to be a year looked back upon with fondness. An increasing number of lingering hopes held by some electors were dashed as the right-wing mantra of dismantling the public sector continued to dominate the Westminster coalition. In essence, it was year when capitalism was called into question by Thatcher's grandchildren.

In Wales, voters never actually had the opportunity to see cross-party government in action reemerge. Perhaps they had a lucky escape or maybe coalition politics has merely gone underground in Cardiff Bay for a while. One outcome of the recent budget deal seems to be a temporary abatement of the hate-hate relationship between the Welsh Government and local councils.

Public sector workers took to the streets in protest at attacks on their pension rights. ConDem ministers responded with expected noises about possible "employment reform" and other restrictive measures. In fairness, one reform also included equal status for agency workers which upset at least one prominent tory donor.

The slow burning fuse of phone hacking finally went off under the Murdochs leaving possibly more smoke in its wake than had existed previously. But at least Lord Leveson's subsequent enquiry into the media managed to make day-time TV bearable.

Wales gave a resounding yes to the question of whether it wanted to move on from the status of colonial dependency. However, and following later elections, the newly appointed Labour ministers seemed a little taken aback by their new powers and undertook an ~~extended sabbatical~~ policy review. The outcome moved a former diplomat to pose whether devolution was worth the effort.

A former tory leader was left wondering how his party had gained votes but had left him unseated. For Plaid it was the other way around. Lib Dems managed to avoid the predicted meltdown although they ended up in a different kind of limbo following eligibility issues for two candidates.

Wales delivered a verdict on AV that matched the national mood of disinterest in the mechanics of democracy along with a distrust of those promoting change.

Meanwhile, Swansea Council went from basket-case to something possibly a bit more sinister as the chief executive, public services ombudsman and police were all asked to look into allegations of misconduct involving senior councillors.

Many press pundits claim that it was one of the busiest news years in living memory both nationally and internationally. At home, several reputations were made and lost politically whilst similar things were happening abroad and included a few regime changes to boot.

In other respects however it was remarkably much like any other year. So thanks for the comments and contributions received in 2011 and - as Mark Twain once said - now is the accepted time to make ourregular annual good resolutions. Next week we can start paving the road to hell withthem as usual.

The missing bits

2011-12-28T11:31:00.001Z

Thepress has understandably picked up on the references in Nick Clegg’s New Years message to members on being part of a “rescue mission”.

Clegg to the rescue

Theanalogy is not an encouraging one for potential survivors. In some respects hisaccount of achievements to date is about as laudable as the actions of a manwho reports a missing manhole cover after he has sold it off for scrap.

Unsurprisingly,the selective review makes no mention of how his electoral reforms wererejected by voters in May with only seven areas out of 379 backing AVproposals. Nor is there any mention of how the party lost almost 700 seats in anear-meltdownat local elections the same day.

LibDems reading their leader’s message may also be puzzled by a missing allusionto the rather large issue of how the coalition agreement has become skewed bytory Europhobic squabbles and the possible consequences.

Theywill doubtlessly be hoping to be among those whom Clegg says thegovernment has been “helping get through difficult times”. But since he also claimsto be “rebalancing our economy away from the City of London towards stronger,more sustainable growth” then a letter to Santa might prove more effective in the long run.

Season's Greetings

2011-12-25T18:50:00.003Z

As received from a contributor this morning.

J'accuse - or something like that

2011-12-23T11:03:00.000Z

As a former PR pro, David Cameron will acknowledge that perception can be everything inpolitics. Accordingly he will soon need to take a view as to whether thesacking of Aidan Burley as a parliamentary privatesecretary is as far as he needs to go.

Cameron in the Independent

Burley, tory MP for Cannock Chase, was photographed at a stag dinner alongside a man wearing a replica SS officer's uniform. Frenchprosecutors have begun an investigation into the event which saw guests performingNazi salutes and drinking toasts to the Third Reich at a restaurant.

Les flics are said to consideringpossible charges of inciting racial hatred and being an apologist for Nazism –offences that can be punished with six-month jail term. To date however no-one inthe Brit media has uncovered any corroborative info on Burley that might exposehim as a closet fascist – and it’s not for the want of trying either.

Fornow, guilt by association will have to suffice which probably explains why the Independentcovers the story using a picture that appears to depict the PM delivering the punchline to ananti-Semitic joke.

Update: Just had it pointed out that the Telegraph is using the same pic - but we're not going to allow accuracy to get in the way.

Sunset for solar power delayed

2011-12-22T13:25:00.002Z

Harshcriticism of the ConDem government's tattered green agenda is nothing new -although it is usually some section of the nation's amorphous environmentallobby doing the shouting. This time however it is parliament's ownenvironmental committees who are questioning whether ministers understand theimplications of halving subsidy given to people who contribute energy into thegrid from solar power.

The Guardian reports MPs have concluded that giving bothconsumers and companies just a few weeks' notice of a reduced feed-in tariffsfrom 43.3p to 21p paid per kWh of energy generated has createduncertainty among investors and undermined public confidence in energy policy.

MPs arealso highly critical of the government's consultation, which they say was basedon an inadequate impact assessment. They point out that a 12 December deadline wasset for changes to come into effect but consultation officially closes on 23December.

Itis this same closed minds approach that prompted a recent legal challenge byFriends of the Earth and which saw high court ruling yesterday that plans to cut incentive payments for householders whoinstall solar panels were legally flawed. This move will help thoseseeking a judicial review and thereby help force a delay in implementation.

But the subsequent views of the Commons committees and a growingnumber of concerns from backbenchers who are under pressure from constituents couldsee the proposals permanently put on hold whilst ministers do a rethink on thepolicy imperatives involved.

Lawyers for the Department of Energy and Climate Changeimmediately moved to apply for permission to appeal the judge's ruling but officialsare also quietly briefing that a statement is to be issued “probably in thenext few weeks”.

Perplexed of Whitehall

2011-12-20T11:10:00.003Z

Thebetting is that the 'Whitehall source' described as being "perplexed" by the Welsh Governmentplans to set up a London office has a desk located somewhere within a Grade 1 listedmansion located opposite Downing Street.

Yet although some of the inhabitants of Gwydr House are said to be taking exceptionto the proposal, the politicians seem more equable. Some have chosen to report withoutactually commenting and others appear to be ignoring the decision altogether.

Theunspoken consensus, even among ConDems, is that Mrs Gillan may be theWestminster government's representative in Wales but she is patently nevergoing to be the Welsh government's representative in London – as displayed byher patronising references in a recent WelshAffairs Committee to her provision of "a very nicely appointedoffice" for guest workers and how Welsh government ministers are"always welcome" to her department.

The Beeb helpfully adds insult to condescension by quoting a nameless government mouthpiece whouses some rather uncivil service-like language about the detriment of “different furrows” whilst claiming the Welsh Government is "seeking separation betweenWales and Westminster just for the sake of it."

Clearly Perplexed of Whitehall is still struggling tocome to terms with the intellectual concept of devolution, let alone any practical application. That of course is pretty par for the course among the all-too-permanent secretariat but it's disappointing to see that they are similarlychallenged in their understanding of the principles involved when hustling for business.

Otherwise they would know that a period of reduced public spending it is preciselythe right time to be cutting out the middle-mandarin and start working on ways to market yourselfdirectly to investors.

Overdoing the expectations

2011-12-19T18:39:00.000Z

A minor avalanche of emails we've received tell that several Swansea councillors have been interviewed by police during the last week over a number of allegations of misconduct and possible abuse of public office.

This questioning has sparked conjecture in some circles that a criminal investigation is now underway. The reasoning advanced by wishful thinkers is that S.Wales Police had earlier stated their activities would be restricted to simply reviewing the evidence gathered so far by the ombudsman. Conducting interviews means that things have moved on, they argue.

Maybe so, but it is also reasonable to expect that the process of checking evidence should involve corroboration through taking of statements. Those people counting chickens could yet find they have a turkey on their hands.

Leader celebrates job losses

2011-12-16T13:06:00.000Z

No-one has been all that surprised at theinsensitive attitude shown by Chris Holley to the lossof 39 DVLA jobs in Swansea as part of plans to shed 800 regional postsoverall.

What hasraised a few eyebrows is his apparent eagerness to accept doubtful governmentassurances of a net gain of 400 relocated staff posts to the main operationscentre in the city.

Perhaps he is simply dismissing warnings from unions,backed up by industry consultants, that outsourcing plans will see up to threetimes that number of jobs transferred out of the agency into the private sectorby 2014. More likely however is that he hasn’t a clue as to the actualsituation.

The fact that this 'rationalisation' is being steered by transport minister MikePenning, who last month announced the demise of the Swansea Coastguard service, seems equally lost on the hapless local government leader who is patently taking his brief from further up the food chain.

It is noticeable that the more politicallyastute Peter Black has so far stayed silent on the subject. The Lib Dem AM - and also a council colleague of Holley - hasa reputation of being sceptical about employment changes packaged as goodnews. It’s a shame that none of his acumen has managed to rub off.

Fundamentals

2011-12-15T18:03:00.000Z

The expected declaration of Leanne Woodas one Plaid’s four leadership contenders creates an interesting mix. There areothers probably far better equipped to comment in the qualities that each wouldbring to the role. Even so it is refreshing to see a party embarking on a contest that does not involve a selection from a range of manufactured pre-packaged clones.

The latest post by MichaelHagget (Syniadau) suggests that a commitment to the “fundamental aim” ofindependence will be an upfront rather than a background factor. As you would expect, MH makes a cogent argument in favour. The test for the foursome (and anyone else who declares) is to how to balance a popular concept for a party in opposition with the electoral means of becoming a party in government that can make it happen.

The party of protest returns

2011-12-14T10:34:00.002Z

Today sees more coded criticism in themedia from struggling Lib Dems who were reduced to passive resistancein order to distance themselves from those isolationist tories – although it was the 57Lib Dem MPs who ended up looking isolated last night and just a bit silly.

Similarly, and especially in light of thealleged strength of their disapproval, it is noticeable that it was theperipheral, and quite possibly expendable, Chris Huhne who reportedly did asheep-worrying number on Cameron during a “businesslike” cabinetmeeting.

According to the Guardian, Huhne reportedlyinterrupted the PM twice during the meeting. As earth-shattering as thisappalling break with convention may appear, it is a measure of Clegg’sdesperation to regain ground that he subsequently gave the Energy Secretary the nod to goahead and reveal particulars of cabinet proceedings.

Some outraged senior tories are said to be urging asimilar breach of protocol through the release of details discussed by Cameron andClegg on possible veto actions prior to last Friday. The text is said toprovide a significantly different account from what the deputy PM has beentelling his parliamentary party.

Matters are far from a total breakdown in civilities but it could get worse on several other european related fronts as economic growth continues to nosedive. Party managers will be reminding their respective leaders on the wisdom at such difficult times of talking up the coalition in public and talking each other down in private.

Both partners will have noted however that the latest YouGovSun poll shows the tories with a 2 point lead over Labour for the firsttime in yonks. (Con 41, Lab 39, Lib Dem 10, Other 10). They will also have spotted that the survey did not includeany specific references to Cameron’s stance over Europe.

Cameron and his aides may feel that this is an advantage worth exploiting if the trend of mild jingoism continues to gain popularity. Clegg on the other hand looks likely to remain stuck with the burden of appearing uncooperative but nonetheless complicit in all the government's doings. The party of protest looks decidedly lost.

Update: More on those polls from Nick Robinson.

Recall bill likely to be recalled

2011-12-13T22:34:00.000Z

There would appear to be scarce support amongMPs for constitutional proposals put forward today by minister Mark Harper intended to remove the ability of dishonourable members to keep their seatsunless jailed for more than a year.

But unusually for an institution so often driven byself-interest, the misgivings centre around suggestions that a recall systemwould need a majority of MPs to first sanction commencement of such a move.

The ConDem proposals – which differ significantly from electionmanifesto commitments by both parties – require 10% of eligible constituents to subsequently vote for a recall. The affected seat would be vacated and a by-election held.The dumped MP could still seek re-election.

The clear inference in the bill is that the Commons committee onStandards and Privileges will play a key role in linking recall protocols withexisting disciplinary processes. It is a neat solution but otherwise basicallytoothless according to several members. Outside bodies such as the TaxpayersAlliance are of the same opinion.

Few observers give the bill much hope of survival in its currentform. Current betting is that it will be a close thing as to whether it isCameron or Clegg who is first to announce its eventual withdrawal.

No sign of a smoking gun

2011-12-13T19:54:00.002Z

Opinion at the Strangers Bar is that falling foul of the health fascists is unlikely to dampen the current odds on Cheryl Gillan's imminent departure from the cabinet.

But the same received wisdom holds that critics will need to do better than drag up the attendance of the Welsh Secretary at a junket laid on by a Japanese tobacco firm. Those with better than short-term memory also observe that Labour is on somewhat shaky ground in going the finger-wagging given her predecessor's (ahem) sporting interests.

Regardless of the eyeball-rolling and associated rhetoric, the reality is that all the parties do the obligatory hospitality circuits whilst in office and opposition.

As it happens, Japan Tobacco International bought up the former JR Freeman cigar factory in Cardiff and have managed to retain a few local interests. So what would be the mainstream political reaction to the possibility of the company re-instating their operations in Wales and bringing new jobs with them? Not that such an option is on the cards, of course - for now anyway.

Missing in inaction

2011-12-12T19:36:00.000Z

Nick Clegg stood up to David Cameron today - or to be more accurate, he wasn't seated alongside as the Prime Minister gave an account to parliament of his veto actions last week.

The deputy PM claimed that he did not want to be a "distraction" during a key statement. He needn't have worried; it was evident that those making the decisions intend to continue in the practice of hardly giving him a thought.

Blame game backfires for Holley

2011-12-12T08:58:00.001Z

SwanseaLib Dem council leader Chris Holley has been eager to portray things as beingbusiness as usual whilst police look into whether his involvement in amisconduct issue merits criminal investigation.

Accordingly,he decided that the Welsh Government would be a soft target for a bollockingvia the media over transport grants. After all, bleating that Cardiff getsdisproportionately more in the way of handouts has always gone down well inSwansea and would serve as a useful distraction. It turns out to have beenanother misjudgment on his part.

Thenorm is for a government spokesman to respond to such attacks with a fewhelpful but stilted lines to outline policy - but what emerged was a full-onpolitical tongue-lashing delivered by an aide to Transport Minister Carl Sergeant.

Hisverdict was that "Councillor Holley is talking utter and completenonsense”, adding "We'll take no lectures from this particular Lib Demcouncil leader about transport policy."

Thespokesman pointed out that the Welsh government will take forward plans todouble-track the section of railway line serving Gowerton and Loughor by 2015plus keeping up pressure for an electrification of the main line betweenSwansea and Cardiff.

“SomethingLib Dems in Swansea failed to do”, he emphasised “even though they're inGovernment in London."

Update (13 Dec): The Beans on Toast provides a rigorousdefence for the beleaguered Mr Holley – whilst assuming that their readershipwill be just as credulous about a newspaper that is suddenly so averse toyah-boo politics.

Cameron finds his Falklands factor

2011-12-11T17:51:00.001Z

No matter what qualms may exist within thedamper side of the coalition, polls and assorted surveys show a goodly chunk ofthe electorate aligning with the majority view among Conservatives that Camerondid the business in Europe. Most of those interviewed readily admitted to understanding verylittle of how the UK veto over treaty changes may affect the country's futureeconomic standing. The overall assessment is a positive one nevertheless.

Perhaps this was the reason why Nick Cleggseemed hard pressed this morning to explain the basis for his concern at adistancing from Brussels (and Strasbourg). The impression, somewhatmanufactured by a media seeking out divisions, was that the deputy PM seemed mostly peeved at beingpublicly wrong-footed over a national policy stance. Viewers were left puzzlingover whether Lib Dems in the cabinet had backed the veto or not - and what hadchanged for them to now condemn the move.

By comparison, the plaudits keep comingCameron's way and the more that miscellaneous European governments and/or commentatorsexpress deep regret at Britain's increased isolationism, the more Churchillian theprime minister is depicted by his aides to the press.

None of this posturing can be sustained for toolong of course. The finance sector is currently happy with the government'santi-regulatory position, but if markets and borrowing start to move in thewrong direction then pressure will build for the same kind of a back-doorrearrangement that happened under Major, Blair and Brown.

For the time being, tories will be concentrateon how the events of the last week have all but wiped out Labour's notionallead. Mr Miliband will doubtlessly be doing the same thing.

Be careful of what Lib Dems wish for

2011-12-08T13:14:00.001Z

Alarm bells should be ringing in Swansea atthe suggestion by Peter Black that the Welsh government should mimicNick Clegg's "revolutionary” proposals to let councils to go into debt to fund tram schemes.

Notwithstanding the freebieepisode, which saw council leader Chris Holley face an internalinvestigation after normal commissioning procedures were circumvented, the costs of these schemes are horrendous andtheir outcomes often uncertain.

One obvious example is the hugely controversialscheme undertaken by Edinburgh TramsLimited, a company wholly owned by the City of Edinburgh Council. Originallycosted at £375 million in 2003, the budget was later increased to £545 million;in May 2011, it was revealed that £440 million had already been spent on theproject.

Doggedby contractual disputes between contractors and project management company, thetram system has been scaled down dramatically from its original form. A seriesof start-stop-start decisions by the local authority that led to legalarguments eventually forced the Scottish Government to intervene.

Lib Dem-run Swansea Council has a trackrecord for underestimating the cost of projects with an eventual doubling of spending thatdates back to its rebuild of the city’s leisure centre. The idea that theycould be allowed to borrow against future business rate income – and plunge thecity further into debt – really does not bear thinking about.

Testing time over exams scandal

2011-12-08T10:45:00.001Z

Never mind Politician of the Year, it is the next 48 hours which hold significance for education minister Leighton Andrews in light of alleged actions by officials to help along examination performance in Wales.

The revelations in the Telegraph make damning reading (and watching). They put serious question marks against the integrity of those conducting and overseeing the examination process. Whether they also reflect badly on the ability of politicians keep a grip on things is something the media has not yet decided.

Although he is acknowledged to have acquitted himself adequately over the University of Wales debacle and eventually rode out a rocky period of questioning over the POWIS scheme, the scandal of fixing exams in schools is much closer to home.

The WJEC has acted promptly and suspended the officials. What now remains to be seen is whether Welsh Government's own Mr Fixit can come up with the right answers.

Second city remains second rate

2011-12-07T10:33:00.001Z

Just a day after his Cardiff counterpartannounced a new bus station in the heart of a newfinancial services district, Lib Dem council leader Chris Holley tellsSwansea they have to settle for the demolition of a long-derelict shoppingcentre to make way for … a temporary car park.

This uninspiring news is entirely inkeeping with the earlier action of flattening Swansea City FC’s former VetchField to order to provide allotments. For many, it is another botched‘strategic improvement’ by an administration which has blown most of its ownresources on ill-considered vanity projects over the years and is now unable toeven widen a road without the benefit of Welsh Government table-scraps.

No doubt the council’s spin corps – plus theirwilling accomplices in the local media – will repeatedly herald the action as a significant investment move inadvance of work commencing next March.

On that point however the main oppositiongroup on Swansea Council should be asking why Labour minister Huw Lewis thoughtit was OK to sanction a deal with a start date just months before next May’s electionswhile keeping the local party hierarchy out the loop.

Perhaps the unhelpful timing escaped theirnotice due to their current fixation with continuingpolice investigations elsewhere. Just as well given the apparent ambivalencefrom colleagues in Cardiff Bay.

Between the lines

2011-12-06T08:56:00.001Z

The nature of the current stand offbetween former Boundaries Commission boss Paul Wood and the Welsh Government is best illustrated by how one of them appears to be making most effective use of themedia.

Having been labeled damaged goods by government officials, theformer deputy chief constable successfully used Dragon’sEye last month to place a question mark against the integrity of thosewho allegedly wanted the Commission to bow to political self-interest.

Wood also submitted a series of FoI requeststo get sight of internal government emails and diary records between a ‘formerminister’ and his civil servants. The unmistakable reason for such a search is to reveal evidence confirming that the new incumbent changed the rules set by hispredecessor after May and then sacked those commissioners who refused to toethe line.

It is not all that surprising that the Welsh government has since refused the request claiming it to be “vexatious” and “a fishingexpedition".

What is mildly shocking however is that an administration with atotal PR spend approaching £2 million has so far been consistently wrong-footed by an “obsessiveindividual”.

Care comes first

2011-12-05T09:55:00.001Z

It would be unwise for the sceptics at CathaysPark to the regard the concerns of Welsh local government over plans torationalise Safeguarding Children Boards as a outward sign of attachment to thepresent flawed system.

No-one seeks to retain the status quo and most acceptthat the number, scope and rationale of the current 22 joint agency reviewbodies badly needs an overhaul. And as much as Lib Dem spokesman on children,Aled Roberts, might express concern, even he will acknowledge that his own former authority hashad its issues, many of which require more that the current arrangement inorder to achieve a full and final resolution.

The truth of the matter is thatSafeguarding Children Boards serving Wales are better practiced at publishing‘balanced’ reports than performing their key function of identifying the extentof failings and forcing individual agencies to address them. What is neededis a robust, and as far as possible transparent, mechanism that can makeindividual practitioners – including those caring for vulnerable adults - accountableto a sanctioning authority other than their respective professionalbodies.

Whether the proposed changes by LesleyGriffiths will achieve the stated outcomes is debatable, and hopefully will be appropriately challenged as necessary.Nonetheless it is the effectiveness of the changes that must be the primaryconsideration rather than professional turf wars over whether local heathboards should become the dominant care bodies in Wales.

Is the green lobby a spent force?

2011-12-04T09:42:00.001Z

The Observerreports that an extraordinary alliance of countryside campaigners, wildlife groups andgreen activists has launched a savage onslaught on the government, accusing itof showing "stunning disregard" for the environment.

Yetthere is otherwise little press interest.

Referringto lettersfrom an umbrella campaign backed by organisations thatinclude the RSPB and the Campaign to Protect Rural England, the paperdescribes the attack as a significant embarrassment for David Cameron whoclaimed at the last election that his would be the "greenest governmentever".

Giventhe range of upfront economic issues reported elsewhere today which contributeto a burgeoning austerity, it is unsurprising that concerns exist as to whetherWhitehall sees the green agenda as relevant or affordable in the wider context.

Thebattle facing the environmental establishment, who have arguably experiencedcomparatively lesser budget reductions and redundancies, is to persuade politiciansthat this is something more than a middle-class obsession.

Weak but not weekly - for now

2011-12-01T17:58:00.001Z

Alan Edmunds, managing director of Media Wales did not mince his words when telling a cross-party group of AMs that there is no intention of selling off the Western Mail or turning it into a weekly newspaper.

There were "absolutely no plans" for a slim-down despite the company conceding that it was facing the same dwindling circulation problems as other newspaper publishers.

He told the committee of inquiry, "I can't envisage a scenario, I can't see a scenario where it would make business sense for us to turn it weekly”. It was noticeable however that he did not rule out the possibility should someone else’s imagination within the organisation become a factor.

Edmunds was equally forthright is dismissing the suggestion of a government bail-out (temprorary public ownership) as mooted by Plaid Cymru AM Bethan Jenkins. He claimed that the idea of public ownership was based on “very little substance”.

"Wales needs an independent, private, commercial news service and I think it would be all the poorer if it didn't have one”, he added.

No argument there, but the question persists as to whether the Western Mail has actually been fulfilling this particular role in recent times.

Who benefits?

2011-12-01T09:43:00.001Z

We’re confident that the assessment by the Institute of FiscalStudies on the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement will be either rubbished orignored by ConDem blogs. As a result, we thought it would be useful toreproduce a chunk of what is published in today’s Independent.

The poor will sufferdisproportionately from the Chancellor's failure to increase tax credits, astudy by the IFS concludes, and will not benefit to the same extent as thebetter-off from the council tax freeze (because they pay less council tax) andthe delay of the fuel duty increase (because they drive less).

The overall effect of theTreasury's new plans will be to reduce the incomes of those in the bottom 30per cent of earners and to benefit those in the top 60 per cent. TheChancellor's decision will also push more children into poverty, IFSresearchers conclude.

Those with an annual income of£15,600 will lose an average of £44.75 in the year 2012-13. Those earning£18,200 will be worse off by about £36 in the same year. By contrast, thosewith an annual income of £76,100 will benefit by about £105, thanks to MrOsborne's most recent tax changes. Those with a yearly salary of £45,300 willget £98 more.

As a result of all the tax andbenefit measures by Mr Osborne since he became Chancellor in May 2010, the IFScalculates that those in the bottom 10 per cent of earners will see theirannual incomes decline by £168 in 2012-13. Those in the second to last 10 percent of earners will see their incomes go down by £265.

The incomes of the top 10 percent of earners will decline by £300 and those of the second-highest 10 percent will fall by £102. Although similar in cash terms to the sums lost bythose at the bottom end of the income distribution, these losses represent amuch smaller share of the total incomes of the wealthy.

Researchers at the IFS havealso calculated that average incomes of people in the UK will drop by 7.4 percent in the three years between 2009 and 2013. It estimates that averagehousehold incomes will be no higher in 2015-16 than they were in 2002-03.

The IFS's calculations onincomes are based on the growth forecasts of the Office for BudgetResponsibility – which in turn are based on the assumption that Europeanleaders will "struggle through" the eurozone debt crisis.

No doubt there will be some snipingat the IFS figures by Whitehall and political mouthpieces but the underlying and undeniable message is that this government which talks a lot more about equality than it practicesit.

More to the point however is that ifthis imbalance is the result of a Lib Dem ‘moderating influence’ upon theChancellor then they should pack it in now.

Mole hunt call rejected

2011-11-30T11:45:00.001Z

The roads for votes scandal at Calamity Hall took on a slightly different dimension last week when an individual was overheard telling a compatriot that they had spent the last four hours with police.

The person involved was not a councillor but the same 'civilian' who was copied in on the chief executive's email confirming that an allegation against three senior councillors would be referred to the ombudsman.

The role of this individual and how they came to be aware of the alleged trading of votes for highways spending is a bit fuzzy. In fact, it is this mysterious connection that has prompted unnamed but high-ranking councillors within the ruling administration to demand an internal investigation into how sensitive information came to be 'shared'.

We understand that these calls have been rejected by officials on the grounds that enquiries could compromise current police and ombudsman investigations.

Are they all militants?

2011-11-29T08:23:00.001Z

Government ministers continue to blow hot and cold in their stance towards strike action by public sector workers tomorrow. Having lost most of the arguments over the weekend, cabinet strategists authorised Francis Maude to be back off on possible retaliatory moves of withdrawing the current offer on pensions. This moderation has been replaced today by threats from education secretary Michael Gove of future legislative changes designed to make disputes harder to escalate.

What is making the ConDem position harder to sell is that their plans have less to do with 'unaffordable' retirement packages than a means of tapping into funds that can support their austerity package of cuts elsewhere. Pensions for refuse workers will be cut to make up the scrapping of a 50% tax rate for the rich, say union spokespeople. It is the effective way that this message has been put over in the media that is a troublesome aspect for ministers.

Government briefings have now switched back to emphasising the disruption and inconvenience caused to the public. But attention is also beginning to focus on the unprecedented cohesion between otherwise professionally separate groups. For the first time that most can remember, head teachers, teaching staff and teaching assistants will all be striking in protest. Calling them all 'militants' is therefore probably not a good idea.

Ministers may claim that a day of action on the scale projected by organisers will be bad for the country's image. However, collective dissent by so many people at one time will be an even worse indictment from the government's perspective.

Another hole blown in the BNPs sinking ship

2011-11-28T12:34:00.001Z

Ever heard of the Trafalgar Dining Club?Thought not. Neither had EU fraud investigators until whistleblowers beganquestioning alleged use of MEP premises to support a covert membership projectheaded by BNP chairman Nick Griffin.

In a recent widely circulated e-mail sentto potential but publicity shy members, Griffin added the footnote:

Somepeople, because of the sensitive nature of their employment or other validreasons, cannot join a political party. So why not become a member of ourexclusive dining club, the Trafalgar Club? Members get exclusive gifts and thechance to enjoy trips and fine dining with me and other like-minded people.

According to several disillusioned BNPactivists, the exclusive gifts are signed photos of Griffin and the trips &“fine-dining” are allegedly organised through his MEP’s office – somethingwhich OLAF,the EU anti-fraud office, are said to be looking into.

Griffinhad promised to stand down as chairman in 2013 but now says he will continueuntil at least 2015. His position as leader was made a bit more secure following the party’sconference in Liverpool last month. This was a result of forced resignations by several key allies and last minute changes in conference format.

Membership remains in free-fall. A number of breakaway right-wing groups say they will be opposing BNP candidates inmunicipal elections next year.

A self-fulfilling process

2011-11-28T10:29:00.001Z

The Leveson Inquiry moves on today to the stage where the public can [hypothetically] relate to the need for ~~more control over the media~~ a robust code of ethics in journalism.

Christopher Jefferies, the landlord wrongly accused of Joanna Yeates' murder will relate how some papers destroyed his reputation. Singer Charlotte Church is scheduled to describe how the News of the World ran a story about her father having an affair despite knowing her mother had just attempted suicide.

A late addition to the programme is Guido Fawkes (Paul Staines) who will be summoned to explain how he obtained the text of Alastair Campbell’s evidence - due to be delivered to the inquiry later this week. Guido insists he came by the papers legally.

Such happenstance is to be expected but rumblings are aleady heard off screen that the process is in danger of becoming just the kind of spectacle that the tabloids relish.

A case of premature hypothecation

2011-11-26T00:00:00.000Z

A commonpursuit for lobby correspondents and parliamentary aides today (sorry, yesterday) has been tocheck how many times Nick Clegg admonished the previous administration forannouncing policies to the media before making an obligatory statement to theHouse.

Whateverthe count, it is the turn of the deputy PM to incurthe displeasure of the Speaker for announcinghis new scheme to tackle youth unemployment to the press before MPs.

Asit happens, commentators are already questioning how the government is able tosay how much the new youth contract will cost, but not where the money willcome from.

Clegg’saides have hinted that a squeeze on tax credits could provide part of the extrafunding needed to go towards the £1bn over three years to subsidise 410,000 newwork places.

ButTreasury spokesmen have already clarified that there is not stricthypothecation in the tax system involved and that it would be best to see howit all balances out in the Autumn Statement.

Hmmm.

Done deal

2011-11-25T17:53:00.001Z

There is still a bit of ground to cover between now and 6th December and ample scope to unpick the budget deal between Labour and Lib Dems. But Plaid will find little traction in their assertion that "it is bad for the economy" - especially as Kirsty is also pushing Carwyn into signing up to a stimulus package.

Observers had already commented that there were very few hard elements to the proposals mentioned by IWJ. The party clearly had more interest in how key figures were positioning in readiness for the forthcoming leadership contest and it showed.

It remains to be seen if this a lost opportunity that the Party of Wales comes to regret at length. An more immediate and intriguing question however is whether Iuean's successor turns out of those AMs advocating the hardball tactics that made a deal impractical.

Playing the sack race

2011-11-24T08:06:00.001Z

The Guardianis clearly unimpressed with the subterfuge politics practised by VinceCable and Nick Clegg and their intermittent support for employment reform.

In anuncompromising editorial, the paper bemoans how the Lib Dem BusinessSecretary is intent on sticking a finger in the air before either proceeding orretracing his steps in a effort to be seen as just a little more to the left ofthe tory extremists.

After insisting that he didn'twant to spread fear of the sack, the business secretary nonetheless went on tofloat quick-fire redundancies, massively extendedprobationary periods and axing unfair dismissal protection for staff in smallfirms. Oh, and as if that were not enough, he confirmed that those luckyworkers who retain rights in the future will soon have to pay a fee for theprivilege of enforcing them at a tribunal

Successivepolls show that voters are not taken in by the positioning and posturing thatis the hallmark of Clegg’s party in coalition. No matter how much mouthpieces such as Peter Blackmay attest that “Lib Dems continue torestrain tory extremism” such claims are purely relative.

As the Guardian concludes:

For the Tory right and theirresponsible element of the capitalist class, the slump provides the occasionfor thinking what's previously been unthinkable for very good reason. As MrCameron pandered to them, Mr Cable and Nick Clegg made plain on behalf of everyLib Dem that they would not sign off onBeecroft.

Now it appears that afterspitting out the nastiest elements they have been required to swallow the rest.Thought procedural wheezes – such as merely "calling for evidence"rather than launching formal consultations – they may yet kill off the plans,by pushing them so close to the next election that the Conservatives are forcedto back off.

But what a sorry pass to havereached – to have to pretend that the way to get Britain working is to fire thegun on a sack race.

Same old problem, same old solution

2011-11-23T09:39:00.001Z

Today's WesternMail follows on from earlier ponderings by David Cornockthat Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan is toast come the reshuffle. The prevailing view is that she will be unable to retain the position if she opposes government plans for high speed train links affecting her constituency. Another interesting perspective is that she has gone just a little too native for Whitehall's liking.

The supposed certainty of her exit is said to have prompted First Minister Carwyn Jones to bypass Mrs Gillan and make a direct approach to the PM over electoral wrangles about the future number of AMs.

Come her departure however Conservatives will be stuck with the same old quasi-colonial problem of having to import a newSecretary of State as there is no Welsh MP worth a tonk capable of taking upthe post.

Theresult is that the favourite to replace Cheshire MP Gillan is minister for thedisabled Maria Miller who once attended BryntegComprehensive School in Bridgend (apparently). And as Mr Cornock points out,there is already precedent for that particular career path.

Ah, the good old days.

The blindingly obvious

2011-11-23T06:30:00.000Z

Whilst it's debatable whether Steve Cooganor Hugh Grant will feel any empathy with the Camerons about the treatment meted out to them by the DailyTelegraph over a property deal, they would undoubtedly recognise the approach involved.

The paper stresses that there no suggestion thateither of the parties has done anything improper, the other party being alobbyist in this instance, but everything else in the article suggestsotherwise. If you hadn't worked out that the Conservative side ofthe ConDem coalition is in thrall to the forces of darkness then the article is clearly intended to put you straight.

As with therevelations of a £680,000 publicly funded makeover for the kitchen in their Downing Streetflat, the added inference is that Dave & Sam have little in common with thethousands of UK families struggling to cope with falling incomes and risingprices.

No argument there, but how is this all suddenly news?

Coastguard campaigners fear the worst

2011-11-22T09:52:00.001Z

Campaigners attempting to retain the coastguard serviceat Swansea are bracingthemselves for bad news today. The indications are that Shipping MinisterMike Penning will uphold recommendations to scrap the service based at Mumbles.

If things go the way the pundits expect,then prepare for some abject hand-wringing by Conservative and LiberalDemocrats over how their coalition government had dumped its cost-saving burdenon south west Wales yet again. It will be particularly public snub to toryAMs Suzy Davies and Byron Davies who wangled a private meeting with Penningduring a local visit. But somehow we suspect they will weather the indignity.

Swanseais the busiest maritime rescue coordination centre in Wales and the secondbusiest in the UK, organising on average over 1,700 inshore rescue operations ayear. Government ministers earlier suggested that Swansea could afford to lose the service because of the number of other public sector jobs in the city such as the DVLA.

Update: Confirmation of the bad news.

Beeb go big on tory suspension

2011-11-21T18:15:00.001Z

Cynicsmight see the hand of a certain PR professional at work behind the scenes butBBC Wales Online nonetheless think the suspension of aSwansea tory councillor byhis own party is newsworthy.

Thecomment from Central Office is fairly direct:

"These are serious allegations and the Welsh ConservativeParty has suspended councillor Hood-Williams from the party until such time asthe ombudsman has made a ruling or come to a final decision."

By comparison, Welsh Liberal Democrats are quoted as statingthat “no action” has so far been taken against council leader Chris Holley.What a surprise.

Update: Same story in the Beans onToast;although they apparently did not ask if Holley was also to be suspended by theLib Dems. Perhaps they still think he is being picked on by nasty oppositionpeople.

Further update (23 Nov): Welsh Lib Dems announce no suspension for Holley. They say “we are confident that he [theombudsman] will find these complaints are without foundation." Does thatmean they have conducted their own investigation or just relying on what they’vebeen told?

Another name in the book

2011-11-21T09:50:00.001Z

StickyDick Lewis joins the shabby ranks of those high-profile Swansea Administration councillorscurrently under the active scrutiny of the Public Service Ombudsman for Wales.

As wealluded a few weeks ago, perhaps a bit too cryptically, the Lib Dem member hasbeen reported by the Gower Society for alleged personal misconduct. Specifically, he is supposedto have written to fellow planning committee members urging them to approve anapplication at the Oxwich Bay Hotel.

Theproblem is that he had already declared a personal interest in the matter,meaning that he was prevented from making a comment or lobbying othercouncillors. Being a former planning committee chairman himself, Lewis wouldhave been fully aware of these straightforward restrictions – a point which the Gowerconservation watchdogs will no doubt have emphasised themselves.

As ithappens, the plans were subsequently turned down but the incident will evokememories of a similarly two-sided approach by Lewis over circumstances surrounding anothercontroversial scheme within the Gower AONB.

Althoughusually vocal on most matters, he was strangely reticent when contacted by thelocal press. He would only say that he was aware of the complaint.

Government ponders strike law “reform”

2011-11-20T21:49:00.001Z

Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maudetoday described the case for reforming strike laws as "verypressing" – especially if public sector workers push ahead with industrialaction.

Speaking on the Andrew Marr show, hesaid legislation would be kept "under review" and signaled that masswalk-outs at a time of economic turmoil could lead to a tightening of tradeunion legislation. Maude claimed that the CBI had made a"powerful case" for a minimum 40% turnout on strike ballots beforethey are deemed legal.

More than two million workers are nowset to walk out on November 30 for a day of action coordinated by the TUC. Thewalkout will disrupt schools, courts, government offices, job-centres, drivingtests, council services and hospitals.

The government rejects statements byunion leaders that pension reforms were the most important issue for members ina generation. Their response is that turnout had been "extraordinarilylow".

Maude added that the current offer onpensions was "as good as it gets" and the government reserved theright to withdraw the proposal and impose a settlement in the event ofsustained industrial action.

Tories do it in public

2011-11-20T10:50:00.000Z

The ongoing civil war among Swansea's tory councillors spilled out onto the airwaves this morning with an exchange of diatribes to a local phone-in show.

The first came from deputy group leader Paxton Hood-Williams. His wordy self-praise and a personal account of how leader Rene Kinzett was dumped for absenteeism was in keeping with the kind of poor political judgement he has exercised to date.

It was predictable that Kinzett would come on - and time his call for the end of the show in order to deliver a spirited rebuff. This he did and finished by advising listeners that Hood-Williams has been suspended by the Welsh Conservative party whilst investigations into misconduct at Swansea Council continued.

Despite claims by both combatants that they were there to hold the administration to account, no-one listening would have doubted that Swansea Conservatives have got some way to go in sorting out their own problems first.

Update: We hear that relationships between Swansea West and Gower Conservative Associations have turned "toxic". Writs for defamation are to be issued tomorrow, according to one of the gang of three.

Getting it from both sides

2011-11-20T10:34:00.001Z

Following suspicions aroused by BorisJohnson that David Cameron might have been holding his euro-bazooka the wrongway around, a series of salvoes are delivered against the government from twonormally opposing fronts.

Eighteen Church of England bishopshave signed an open letter, criticising thegovernment's proposed welfare changes. Writing to the Observer, the bishops saythe cap of £500 a week in benefits would be "profoundly unjust" tochildren in the poorest families.

The letter is regarded as a rebuff for the likes of tory MPHarriet Baldwin, a member of the Commons work and pensions committee, andrecently wrote that unemployed families should get child tax credits for nomore than four children.

At the sharp end, research by the CBIsays firms are reviewing investment plans after a "sharp fall" inconfidence among senior business leaders. Interviews held with 122 company bossespeople found 70% were less optimistic about the future than in August. Two outof five were freezing recruitment or laying off staff.

The employers organisation stopped short of an outright call fora rethink in government policy but urged the Chancellor George Osborne tounveil a "Plan A Plus" in his autumn statement later this month.

"The chancellor needs to use his autumn statement to boostbusiness confidence with game-changing new ideas," said a spokesman.

The rot continues

2011-11-18T20:15:00.001Z

There was a real sense of anticipation inCalamity Hall today; in much the same way that a population steels itself for theaftershocks that follow the earthquake. And if the worst was yet to come thenit patently couldn’t happen soon enough for some.

Council has become a basket case

The initial rumours were that certainembarrassing pics of a ‘disabled’ councillor up a ladder would finallymaterialise in time for the Sunday tabloids – although nothing has been seen at the time of writing.

Conversations became more animated as news leaked out about the temporary suspension of deputy tory group leader Paxo Hood-Williams by his party for conduct unbecoming. The continuing implosion of Swansea’s tories and a suggestion of the possible reinstatement of their deposed leader were both attributed to the same source.

People have started making inevitable comparisons with the position of the council's Lib Dem leader and his sidekick who are supposed to be under the same serious cloud over alleged backdoor deals.

We're told nebulous professional opinion has it that the trio could end up facing possible charges relating to misconduct in a public office if things turn out really bad. But this possibility does not seem to impede their ability to host a civic hospitality bash at tomorrow's game at Liberty stadium.

Some have asked how this can be allowed to happen. The obvious answer of course is that it would be a big career decision on the part of anyone who attempted to stop them. Such is the threadbare state of accountability in Swansea.

Bottom line is that there is not much point talking about fitness when the purpose of an administration no longer stands up to scrutiny.

Staying in focus

2011-11-18T10:54:00.001Z

Weunderstand that a cordon has been set up in Rhos where Prince Charles will today meet rescue teams who responded to the tragedyat Gleision Colliery. However it apparently has nothing to do with heightened security.

The main aim is to exclude politicians of various tenure who queuedup in September to be seen and/or interviewed by the media. The restrictedguest list is at the insistence of the palace but the talk among the uninvited isthat the local MP wants a clear field.

Overstepping boundaries

2011-11-18T07:38:00.001Z

The clash of vestedinterests which resulted in a cull at the Boundaries Commission was givenlimited exposure on Dragon’s Eye last night. Editorial qualms may be thereason why the programme only touched on the lesser extent of manoeuvringssparked by the post-May internal regime change at Cardiff Bay. That reticence may alter in coming weeks.

Stories of howministers have thrown proposal documents back across the table at commissionershave been a stock in trade among the apparatchiks. Similarly, it became achallenge to find a senior politico who did not spit on the ground whenever thebody charged with reconfiguring the Welsh political map was mentioned.

When the crunchfinally came, even those outside the bubble understood that a ministerialverdict of “not fit for purpose” following the sacking of three commissionersactually meant “not doing what we tell them”.

Januarywill bring announcements of how 40 parliamentary seats will become 30 and ifcoterminous Assembly arrangements are feasible. Despite residual opposition,the sense is that a majority of the horses have already been traded; all thatremains is selecting the riders. Yet it could turn out to be an interestingprocess if the role played by some of them in setting out the course ever comesto light in the meantime.

Asking questions about answers

2011-11-16T23:01:00.001Z

On a day when statistics of various sorts dominate the headlines, it has to be said that the only remarkable thing about the latest YouGov-Sun opinion survey is that it contains very fewsurprises.

Headline voting intentions are Conservative 36%, Labour 42%, Lib Dem 7%, Others 12%.

A total of 57% respondents said they opposed the coalitionagreement between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats while 33% supported thearrangement.

Given a choice of three from twelve mostimportant issues facing the country, 80% named the economy. Tory strategistsand several tabloids will be reassured that this was followed by immigration &asylum (48%) and Europe (29%).

What will confound some lobbyists on the other hand is that only 11% of those asked thought taxation was an issue – which may well furtherdampen moves to scrap the higher rate. An even smaller percentage (8%)considered family life and childcare as an issue. Make of that what you will.

Priorities shifted dramatically when people were asked to rate the issues on how they affected them personally along with their families. The economy stayed top but the three next highest were pensions, health and taxation.

It is popular in some policy circles to challenge the validity and even the purpose of these snapshot surveys. For others, the responses are often less illuminating than what motivates the pollsters. Whether anyone in government or opposition will feel able to ignore these particular findings however is quite another question.

What you get when ministers do drugs

2011-11-16T09:20:00.001Z

Just when Teresa May thought it was safe to go back onto theconcourse, stories which accuse the government of ‘sexing up’ drug detectionsuccesses start to gather pace. An account in the Independent is one such example of an emerging theme:

Home Office ministers faced afresh crisis last night after being rebuked for manipulating drug-seizurefigures in an apparent attempt to generate good publicity for the embattledBorder Agency. Sir Michael Scholar, the chairman of the UK Statistics Authority,condemned the department for a "highly selective" briefing tojournalists which claimed that the amount of heroin and cocaine detected atports and airports had soared – just days before properly audited figuresshowed seizures had fallen.

The row comes as Theresa May,the Home Secretary, faces a public battle with the former head of the borderforce, Brodie Clark, who has accused her of destroying his reputation.

The Cabinet Secretary, Sir GusO'Donnell, has been asked to examine whether staff acting for Ms May briefednewspapers against Mr Clark. Sir Michael made his rare intervention after crimereporters were told that more cocaine and almost double the amount of heroinwere detected between April and September of this year than in the whole of theprevious 12 months. They held the briefing on 4 November for publication threedays later.

But the department's officialStatistical Bulletin showed the amount of heroin seized in England and Waleshad actually halved in 2010-11 compared with 2009-10, while the amount ofcocaine found was down by one-quarter.

Sir Michael warned that thepublication of the figures broke Whitehall rules on the handling of statisticsand ran counter to the ministerial code.

It is the last reference that has understandably put the press onalert. Civil servants do not make this kind of statements lightly. Editors andproprietors determined to show that they still have a pair, regardless of anyattempted neutering by Lord Justice Leveson, will be closely examining thetimelines of similar announcements.

Update: Boris Johnson, who has also been accused of excessive creativity by the UK Statistics Authority reckons that the chairman is a Labour stooge. As the Guardian points out, Sir Michael Scholar served as private secretary to former Tory premier Margaret Thatcher in the early 1980s.

Cable does Scrooge

2011-11-15T20:50:00.001Z

Business Secretary Vince Cable got into the seasonal spirit bydampening expectations over help for motorists burdened by soaring fuel prices

Fuel duty is due to rise by 3 pence in January, raising anestimated £1.5 billion for the Treasury. Despite MPs passing a motion demanding ministers take action,Cable insisted that the government had already done “quite a lot” for driversand did not have the money for more help.

He told the Daily Telegraph that the top priority was reducingthe budget deficit, adding “the budget position isn't where we can make a lotof freebies available”.

Bah humbug and all that.

Up to the hilt

2011-11-15T18:04:00.000Z

Anexcellent book, now sadly out of print, is the Backstabbers Guide – a sort of lighthearted version ofMachiavelli’s “The Prince” which provides the reader with readily transferableskill sets in deceit, self-promotion and betrayal.

But it’sdoubtful anything approaching an informed strategy was behind the decision of the torygroup on Swansea Council to issue a hugely damaging statementas to why they recently dumped their leader. A more likely factor is that they’re totallyand collectively out of their gourds.

While it's not entirely unheard of for bruised egos to overcome good judgement in politics, its takes a special kind of gob-smacking insanity to actually publish the text of a no-confidence motion.

If claiming that RK was always headed of the exit is an attempt at vindication then it sucks. If the idea was to somehow re-position the Conservative group then all the conspirators have succeeded in doing is to place their party in the ‘at risk of possible self-harm’ category. Every opposing candidate seeking to unseat tories in Mayals - and elsewhere - has had their election material virtually written for them.

Nice going, guys.

Phone numbers

2011-11-14T20:49:00.001Z

Courtesy of the Guardian, naturally.

- almost as good as Tom Watson's 'apology' for not attending the Society of Editors conference.

When the bad news buries you

2011-11-13T20:40:00.001Z

It musthave been one of those Sundays where your average government whip read the papers,popped out into the garden, screamed a bit and then came back in for lunch. Just theSunday Telegraph alone would have done it.

First there was the former minister who has been tellinga leftie scandal sheet how “Cameron is theworst politician in British history since William Gladstone”. What didn't help was his use of expletives for appropriate emphasis.

Then comes further despair over how the damned Liam Fox business won’t go away simply because AdamWerrity is facing further questions over a missing £60,000 or thereabouts. Themoney was given to him to cover the debts of theformer defence secretary's controversial charity.

And tocap it all is the news that some aide to Oliver Letwin has gothimself arrested for fraud by falserepresentation. The aide, a former MP, got himself put in pokey after allegedlyclaiming that he was acting on behalf of the headof government policy on Home Office issues.

The only available solace is that Labour finally got themselves draggedinto the passport fiasco. Then you wonder if anyone noticed.

Lots of struggle, but not much class

2011-11-13T16:58:00.001Z

Toriesin Swansea should take some small consolation in knowing that they don’t have atotal monopoly on political fragmentation. We hear that the local Labourhierarchy also has its hands full in sorting out internal wranglings that couldthreaten part of next year’s election plans.

Indeed,it seems that among the first jobs for their recently appointed electionswhizz-kid is to somehow re-instate a candidate ‘illegally’ deselected by aSwansea East branch the other week. This unenviable task will reportedlyinvolve scaling a small pile of dead bodies, according to a garbled e-mail sentto us that refers to “party members determined to root out Trotskyiteinsurgents”. Duw, there’s dramatic.

Last we heard, an attempt by incomers to re-ignite the class struggle resulted in the party machine lurching a bit too far to the left and falling on them. But with this kind of distraction happening at the fringes, Labour has someway to go before they can successfully portray themselves as an alternative to the current shower running Calamity Hall.

Ombudsman refers Swansea misconduct to police

2011-11-12T06:30:00.000Z

The bizarre 'roads for votes' scandal at Swansea Council went toxic last night as it emergedthat the ombudsman had called in the police to look at the possibility of a criminal investigation.

Today’sEvening Post confirms the serious turn of events with a spokesman for SouthWales police stating that inquiries would be conducted by the force's economiccrime unit.

Theaction is likely to see a repeat of previous calls from Swansea AMs that thethree councillors involved should be suspended while investigations continue.

There issimilar opinion growing elsewhere and we hear that Welsh Liberal Democrats areunder pressure internally to act. This may be what provoked battered councilleader Chris Holley into finally making a public statement of innocence.

Meanwhile,Rockin’ Rene Kinzett got his own special Crimestopper’s award last night, courtesy of his tory group, who dumped him on a noconfidence rap for grassing up a colleague. Technically, Rene quit first – andhas already commented on the calibre of a local Conservative party that seemsto countenance alleged misconduct and penalises those who report it.

Hisremoval will no doubt be challenged by Swansea West Association who recently gaveKinzett their unanimous backing as next year’s council candidate for Mayals.

Update: A recent comment queried Peter Black's stance on the above events. The following Twitter exchange this morning between the Lib Dem AM and Rene Kinzett is illuminating.
------------------------------------

peterblackwales PeterBlack

@ReneKinzett is it the moral course to jumpbefore you are pushed then whilst flinging mud around on your way out?

ReneKinzett René Kinzett

@peterblackwales we'll wait to see whatthe police have to say first, Peter. As ever you're wide of the mark and quickto react