Although the near-omniscient Guido thinks that tonight's vote on parliamentary boundaries could be a close run thing, the view elsewhere is that the tories are about to lose a key part of their strategy to secure an outright majority at the next election. Lib Dems aim to join with Labour in voting down proposals to redraw the constituency map which would otherwise give Conservatives an estimated additional 20 seats.
For Labour it is simple arithmetic. For Lib Dems it is parliamentary payback against David Cameron who allowed his troops to renege on a standing coalition commitment over House of Lords reform. Meanwhile for a small tory survivalist tendency it is literally a matter of hanging on.
Among the self-proclaimed rebels who want to see historical constituencies preserved is Montgomeryshire MP Glyn Davies. He has already signalled his intention to vote against the government although Welsh political correspondents seem oblivious to his blog entry from last Sunday.
Mr Davies has therefore helpfully tweeted this morning, "Here we go. Heading into the House of Commons for most difficult day of my Parliamentary career. Looking forward to putting poison behind me".
It's tough enough being a rebel. It's even tougher when no-one notices.