Retrospectives

For many in political and public life, 2011 is unlikely to be a year looked back upon with fondness. An increasing number of lingering hopes held by some electors were dashed as the right-wing mantra of dismantling the public sector continued to dominate the Westminster coalition. In essence, it was year when capitalism was called into question by Thatcher's grandchildren.

In Wales, voters never actually had the opportunity to see cross-party government in action reemerge. Perhaps they had a lucky escape or maybe coalition politics has merely gone underground in Cardiff Bay for a while. One outcome of the recent budget deal seems to be a temporary abatement of the hate-hate relationship between the Welsh Government and local councils.

Public sector workers took to the streets in protest at attacks on their pension rights. ConDem ministers responded with expected noises about possible "employment reform" and other restrictive measures. In fairness, one reform also included equal status for agency workers which upset at least one prominent tory donor.

The slow burning fuse of phone hacking finally went off under the Murdochs leaving possibly more smoke in its wake than had existed previously. But at least Lord Leveson's subsequent enquiry into the media managed to make day-time TV bearable.

Wales gave a resounding yes to the question of whether it wanted to move on from the status of colonial dependency. However, and following later elections, the newly appointed Labour ministers seemed a little taken aback by their new powers and undertook an extended sabbatical policy review. The outcome moved a former diplomat to pose whether devolution was worth the effort.

A former tory leader was left wondering how his party had gained votes but had left him unseated. For Plaid it was the other way around. Lib Dems managed to avoid the predicted meltdown although they ended up in a different kind of limbo following eligibility issues for two candidates.

Wales delivered a verdict on AV that matched the national mood of disinterest in the mechanics of democracy along with a distrust of those promoting change.

Meanwhile, Swansea Council went from basket-case to something possibly a bit more sinister as the chief executive, public services ombudsman and police were all asked to look into allegations of misconduct involving senior councillors.

Many press pundits claim that it was one of the busiest news years in living memory both nationally and internationally. At home, several reputations were made and lost politically whilst similar things were happening abroad and included a few regime changes to boot.

In other respects however it was remarkably much like any other year. So thanks for the comments and contributions received in 2011 and - as Mark Twain once said - now is the accepted time to make our regular annual good resolutions.  Next week we can start paving the road to hell with them as usual.

The missing bits

The press has understandably picked up on the references in Nick Clegg’s New Years message to members on being part of a “rescue mission”.

Clegg to the rescue

The analogy is not an encouraging one for potential survivors. In some respects his account of achievements to date is about as laudable as the actions of a man who reports a missing manhole cover after he has sold it off for scrap.

Unsurprisingly, the selective review makes no mention of how his electoral reforms were rejected by voters in May with only seven areas out of 379 backing AV proposals. Nor is there any mention of how the party lost almost 700 seats in a near-meltdown at local elections the same day.

Lib Dems reading their leader’s message may also be puzzled by a missing allusion to the rather large issue of how the coalition agreement has become skewed by tory Europhobic squabbles and the possible consequences.

They will doubtlessly be hoping to be among those whom Clegg says the government has been “helping get through difficult times”. But since he also claims to be “rebalancing our economy away from the City of London towards stronger, more sustainable growth” then a letter to Santa might prove more effective in the long run.

Season's Greetings

As received from a contributor this morning.

J'accuse - or something like that

As a former PR pro, David Cameron will acknowledge that perception can be everything in politics. Accordingly he will soon need to take a view as to whether the sacking of Aidan Burley as a parliamentary private secretary is as far as he needs to go.

Cameron in the Independent

Burley, tory MP for Cannock Chase, was photographed at a stag dinner alongside a man wearing a replica SS officer's uniform. French prosecutors have begun an investigation into the event which saw guests performing Nazi salutes and drinking toasts to the Third Reich at a restaurant.

Les flics are said to considering possible charges of inciting racial hatred and being an apologist for Nazism – offences that can be punished with six-month jail term. To date however no-one in the Brit media has uncovered any corroborative info on Burley that might expose him as a closet fascist – and it’s not for the want of trying either.

For now, guilt by association will have to suffice which probably explains why the Independent covers the story using a picture that appears to depict the PM delivering the punchline to an anti-Semitic joke.


Update: Just had it pointed out that the Telegraph is using the same pic - but we're not going to allow accuracy to get in the way. 

Sunset for solar power delayed

Harsh criticism of the ConDem government's tattered green agenda is nothing new - although it is usually some section of the nation's amorphous environmental lobby doing the shouting. This time however it is parliament's own environmental committees who are questioning whether ministers understand the implications of halving subsidy given to people who contribute energy into the grid from solar power.

The Guardian reports MPs have concluded that giving both consumers and companies just a few weeks' notice of a reduced feed-in tariffs from 43.3p to 21p paid per kWh of energy generated has created uncertainty among investors and undermined public confidence in energy policy.

MPs are also highly critical of the government's consultation, which they say was based on an inadequate impact assessment. They point out that a 12 December deadline was set for changes to come into effect but consultation officially closes on 23 December.

It is this same closed minds approach that prompted a recent legal challenge by Friends of the Earth and which saw high court ruling yesterday that plans to cut incentive payments for householders who install solar panels were legally flawed. This move will help those seeking a judicial review and thereby help force a delay in implementation.

But the subsequent views of the Commons committees and a growing number of concerns from backbenchers who are under pressure from constituents could see the proposals permanently put on hold whilst ministers do a rethink on the policy imperatives involved.

Lawyers for the Department of Energy and Climate Change immediately moved to apply for permission to appeal the judge's ruling but officials are also quietly briefing that a statement is to be issued “probably in the next few weeks”.

Perplexed of Whitehall

The betting is that the 'Whitehall source' described as being "perplexed" by the Welsh Government plans to set up a London office has a desk located somewhere within a Grade 1 listed mansion located opposite Downing Street. 

Yet although some of the inhabitants of Gwydr House are said to be taking exception to the proposal, the politicians seem more equable. Some have chosen to report without actually commenting and others appear to be ignoring the decision altogether.

The unspoken consensus, even among ConDems, is that Mrs Gillan may be the Westminster government's representative in Wales but she is patently never going to be the Welsh government's representative in London – as displayed by her patronising references in a recent Welsh Affairs Committee to her provision of "a very nicely appointed office" for guest workers and how Welsh government ministers are "always welcome" to her department.

The Beeb helpfully adds insult to condescension by quoting a nameless government mouthpiece who uses some rather uncivil service-like language about the detriment of “different furrows” whilst claiming the  Welsh Government is "seeking separation between Wales and Westminster just for the sake of it."

Clearly Perplexed of Whitehall is still struggling to come to terms with the intellectual concept of devolution, let alone any practical application. That of course is pretty par for the course among the all-too-permanent secretariat but it's disappointing to see that they are similarly challenged in their understanding of the principles involved when hustling for business.

Otherwise they would know that a period of reduced public spending it is precisely the right time to be cutting out the middle-mandarin and start working on ways to market yourself directly to investors.

Overdoing the expectations

A minor avalanche of emails we've received tell that several Swansea councillors have been interviewed by police during the last week over a number of allegations of misconduct and possible abuse of public office.

This questioning has sparked conjecture in some circles that a criminal investigation is now underway. The reasoning advanced by wishful thinkers is that S.Wales Police had earlier stated their activities would be restricted to simply reviewing the evidence gathered so far by the ombudsman. Conducting interviews means that things have moved on, they argue.

Maybe so, but it is also reasonable to expect that the process of checking evidence should involve corroboration through taking of statements. Those people counting chickens could yet find they have a turkey on their hands.

Leader celebrates job losses

No-one has been all that surprised at the insensitive attitude shown by Chris Holley to the loss of 39 DVLA jobs in Swansea as part of plans to shed 800 regional posts overall.

What has raised a few eyebrows is his apparent eagerness to accept doubtful government assurances of a net gain of 400 relocated staff posts to the main operations centre in the city.

Perhaps he is simply dismissing warnings from unions, backed up by industry consultants, that outsourcing plans will see up to three times that number of jobs transferred out of the agency into the private sector by 2014. More likely however is that he hasn’t a clue as to the actual situation.

The fact that this 'rationalisation' is being steered by transport minister Mike Penning, who last month announced the demise of the Swansea Coastguard service, seems equally lost on the hapless local government leader who is patently taking his brief from further up the food chain.

It is noticeable that the more politically astute Peter Black has so far stayed silent on the subject. The Lib Dem AM - and also a council colleague of Holley - has a reputation of being sceptical about employment changes packaged as good news. It’s a shame that none of his acumen has managed to rub off.

Fundamentals

The expected declaration of Leanne Wood as one Plaid’s four leadership contenders creates an interesting mix. There are others probably far better equipped to comment in the qualities that each would bring to the role. Even so it is refreshing to see a party embarking on a contest that does not involve a selection from a range of manufactured pre-packaged clones.

The latest post by Michael Hagget (Syniadau) suggests that a commitment to the “fundamental aim” of independence will be an upfront rather than a background factor. As you would expect, MH makes a cogent argument in favour. The test for the foursome (and anyone else who declares) is to how to balance a popular concept for a party in opposition with the electoral means of becoming a party in government that can make it happen.

The party of protest returns

Today sees more coded criticism in the media from struggling Lib Dems who were reduced to passive resistance in order to distance themselves from those isolationist tories – although it was the 57 Lib Dem MPs who ended up looking isolated last night and just a bit silly.

Similarly, and especially in light of the alleged strength of their disapproval, it is noticeable that it was the peripheral, and quite possibly expendable, Chris Huhne who reportedly did a sheep-worrying number on Cameron during a “businesslike” cabinet meeting.

According to the Guardian, Huhne reportedly interrupted the PM twice during the meeting. As earth-shattering as this appalling break with convention may appear, it is a measure of Clegg’s desperation to regain ground that he subsequently gave the Energy Secretary the nod to go ahead and reveal particulars of cabinet proceedings.

Some outraged senior tories are said to be urging a similar breach of protocol through the release of details discussed by Cameron and Clegg on possible veto actions prior to last Friday. The text is said to provide a significantly different account from what the deputy PM has been telling his parliamentary party. 

Matters are far from a total breakdown in civilities but it could get worse on several other european related fronts as economic growth continues to nosedive. Party managers will be reminding their respective leaders on the wisdom at such difficult times of talking up the coalition in public and talking each other down in private.

Both partners will have noted however that the latest YouGov Sun poll shows the tories with a 2 point lead over Labour for the first time in yonks. (Con 41, Lab 39, Lib Dem 10, Other 10). They will also have spotted that the survey did not include any specific references to Cameron’s stance over Europe.

Cameron and his aides may feel that this is an advantage worth exploiting if the trend of mild jingoism continues to gain popularity. Clegg on the other hand looks likely to remain stuck with the burden of appearing uncooperative but nonetheless complicit in all the government's doings. The party of protest looks decidedly lost.

Update: More on those polls from Nick Robinson.

Recall bill likely to be recalled

There would appear to be scarce support among MPs for constitutional proposals put forward today by minister Mark Harper intended to remove the ability of dishonourable members to keep their seats unless jailed for more than a year.

But unusually for an institution so often driven by self-interest, the misgivings centre around suggestions that a recall system would need a majority of MPs to first sanction commencement of such a move.

The ConDem proposals – which differ significantly from election manifesto commitments by both parties – require 10% of eligible constituents to subsequently vote for a recall. The affected seat would be vacated and a by-election held. The dumped MP could still seek re-election.

The clear inference in the bill is that the Commons committee on Standards and Privileges will play a key role in linking recall protocols with existing disciplinary processes. It is a neat solution but otherwise basically toothless according to several members. Outside bodies such as the Taxpayers Alliance are of the same opinion.

Few observers give the bill much hope of survival in its current form. Current betting is that it will be a close thing as to whether it is Cameron or Clegg who is first to announce its eventual withdrawal.

No sign of a smoking gun

Opinion at the Strangers Bar is that falling foul of the health fascists is unlikely to dampen the current odds on Cheryl Gillan's imminent departure from the cabinet.

But the same received wisdom holds that critics will need to do better than drag up the attendance of the Welsh Secretary at a junket laid on by a Japanese tobacco firm. Those with better than short-term memory also observe that Labour is on somewhat shaky ground in going the finger-wagging given her predecessor's (ahem) sporting interests.

Regardless of the eyeball-rolling and associated rhetoric, the reality is that all the parties do the obligatory hospitality circuits whilst in office and opposition.

As it happens, Japan Tobacco International bought up the former JR Freeman cigar factory in Cardiff and have managed to retain a few local interests. So what would be the mainstream political reaction to the possibility of the company re-instating their operations in Wales and bringing new jobs with them? Not that such an option is on the cards, of course - for now anyway.

Missing in inaction

Nick Clegg stood up to David Cameron today - or to be more accurate, he wasn't seated alongside as the Prime Minister gave an account to parliament of his veto actions last week.

The deputy PM claimed that he did not want to be a "distraction" during a key statement. He needn't have worried; it was evident that those making the decisions intend to continue in the practice of hardly giving him a thought.

Blame game backfires for Holley

Swansea Lib Dem council leader Chris Holley has been eager to portray things as being business as usual whilst police look into whether his involvement in a misconduct issue merits criminal investigation.

Accordingly, he decided that the Welsh Government would be a soft target for a bollocking via the media over transport grants. After all, bleating that Cardiff gets disproportionately more in the way of handouts has always gone down well in Swansea and would serve as a useful distraction. It turns out to have been another misjudgment on his part. 

The norm is for a government spokesman to respond to such attacks with a few helpful but stilted lines to outline policy - but what emerged was a full-on political tongue-lashing delivered by an aide to Transport Minister Carl Sergeant.

His verdict was that "Councillor Holley is talking utter and complete nonsense”, adding "We'll take no lectures from this particular Lib Dem council leader about transport policy."

The spokesman pointed out that the Welsh government will take forward plans to double-track the section of railway line serving Gowerton and Loughor by 2015 plus keeping up pressure for an electrification of the main line between Swansea and Cardiff.

“Something Lib Dems in Swansea failed to do”, he emphasised “even though they're in Government in London."

Update (13 Dec): The Beans on Toast provides a rigorous defence for the beleaguered Mr Holley – whilst assuming that their readership will be just as credulous about a newspaper that is suddenly so averse to yah-boo politics.

Cameron finds his Falklands factor

No matter what qualms may exist within the damper side of the coalition, polls and assorted surveys show a goodly chunk of the electorate aligning with the majority view among Conservatives that Cameron did the business in Europe. Most of those interviewed readily admitted to understanding very little of how the UK veto over treaty changes may affect the country's future economic standing. The overall assessment is a positive one nevertheless.

Perhaps this was the reason why Nick Clegg seemed hard pressed this morning to explain the basis for his concern at a distancing from Brussels (and Strasbourg). The impression, somewhat manufactured by a media seeking out divisions, was that the deputy PM seemed mostly peeved at being publicly wrong-footed over a national policy stance. Viewers were left puzzling over whether Lib Dems in the cabinet had backed the veto or not - and what had changed for them to now condemn the move.

By comparison, the plaudits keep coming Cameron's way and the more that miscellaneous European governments and/or commentators express deep regret at Britain's increased isolationism, the more Churchillian the prime minister is depicted by his aides to the press.

None of this posturing can be sustained for too long of course. The finance sector is currently happy with the government's anti-regulatory position, but if markets and borrowing start to move in the wrong direction then pressure will build for the same kind of a back-door rearrangement that happened under Major, Blair and Brown.

For the time being, tories will be concentrate on how the events of the last week have all but wiped out Labour's notional lead. Mr Miliband will doubtlessly be doing the same thing.

Be careful of what Lib Dems wish for

Alarm bells should be ringing in Swansea at the suggestion by Peter Black that the Welsh government should mimic Nick Clegg's "revolutionary” proposals to let councils to go into debt to fund tram schemes.

Notwithstanding the freebie episode, which saw council leader Chris Holley face an internal investigation after normal commissioning procedures were circumvented, the costs of these schemes are horrendous and their outcomes often uncertain.

One obvious example is the hugely controversial scheme undertaken by Edinburgh Trams Limited, a company wholly owned by the City of Edinburgh Council. Originally costed at £375 million in 2003, the budget was later increased to £545 million; in May 2011, it was revealed that £440 million had already been spent on the project.

Dogged by contractual disputes between contractors and project management company, the tram system has been scaled down dramatically from its original form. A series of start-stop-start decisions by the local authority that led to legal arguments eventually forced the Scottish Government to intervene.

Lib Dem-run Swansea Council has a track record for underestimating the cost of projects with an eventual doubling of spending that dates back to its rebuild of the city’s leisure centre. The idea that they could be allowed to borrow against future business rate income – and plunge the city further into debt – really does not bear thinking about.

Testing time over exams scandal

Never mind Politician of the Year, it is the next 48 hours which hold significance for education minister Leighton Andrews in light of alleged actions by officials to help along examination performance in Wales.

The revelations in the Telegraph make damning reading (and watching). They put serious question marks against the integrity of those conducting and overseeing the examination process. Whether they also reflect badly on the ability of politicians keep a grip on things is something the media has not yet decided.

Although he is acknowledged to have acquitted himself adequately over the University of Wales debacle and eventually rode out a rocky period of questioning over the POWIS scheme, the scandal of fixing exams in schools is much closer to home.

The WJEC has acted promptly and suspended the officials. What now remains to be seen is whether Welsh Government's own Mr Fixit can come up with the right answers.

Second city remains second rate

Just a day after his Cardiff counterpart announced a new bus station in the heart of a new financial services district, Lib Dem council leader Chris Holley tells Swansea they have to settle for the demolition of a long-derelict shopping centre to make way for … a temporary car park.

This uninspiring news is entirely in keeping with the earlier action of flattening Swansea City FC’s former Vetch Field to order to provide allotments. For many, it is another botched ‘strategic improvement’ by an administration which has blown most of its own resources on ill-considered vanity projects over the years and is now unable to even widen a road without the benefit of Welsh Government table-scraps.

No doubt the council’s spin corps – plus their willing accomplices in the local media – will repeatedly herald the action as a significant investment move in advance of work commencing next March.

On that point however the main opposition group on Swansea Council should be asking why Labour minister Huw Lewis thought it was OK to sanction a deal with a start date just months before next May’s elections while keeping the local party hierarchy out the loop.

Perhaps the unhelpful timing escaped their notice due to their current fixation with continuing police investigations elsewhere. Just as well given the apparent ambivalence from colleagues in Cardiff Bay.

Between the lines

The nature of the current stand off between former Boundaries Commission boss Paul Wood and the Welsh Government is best illustrated by how one of them appears to be making most effective use of the media.

Having been labeled damaged goods by government officials, the former deputy chief constable successfully used Dragon’s Eye last month to place a question mark against the integrity of those who allegedly wanted the Commission to bow to political self-interest.

Wood also submitted a series of FoI requests to get sight of internal government emails and diary records between a ‘former minister’ and his civil servants. The unmistakable reason for such a search is to reveal evidence confirming that the new incumbent changed the rules set by his predecessor after May and then sacked those commissioners who refused to toe the line.

It is not all that surprising that the Welsh government has since refused the request claiming it to be “vexatious” and “a fishing expedition".

What is mildly shocking however is that an administration with a total PR spend approaching £2 million has so far been consistently wrong-footed by an “obsessive individual”.

Care comes first

It would be unwise for the sceptics at Cathays Park to the regard the concerns of Welsh local government over plans to rationalise Safeguarding Children Boards as a outward sign of attachment to the present flawed system.

No-one seeks to retain the status quo and most accept that the number, scope and rationale of the current 22 joint agency review bodies badly needs an overhaul. And as much as Lib Dem spokesman on children, Aled Roberts, might express concern, even he will acknowledge that his own former authority has had its issues, many of which require more that the current arrangement in order to achieve a full and final resolution.

The truth of the matter is that Safeguarding Children Boards serving Wales are better practiced at publishing ‘balanced’ reports than performing their key function of identifying the extent of failings and forcing individual agencies to address them. What is needed is a robust, and as far as possible transparent, mechanism that can make individual practitioners – including those caring for vulnerable adults - accountable to a sanctioning authority other than their respective professional bodies.

Whether the proposed changes by Lesley Griffiths will achieve the stated outcomes is debatable, and hopefully will be appropriately challenged as necessary. Nonetheless it is the effectiveness of the changes that must be the primary consideration rather than professional turf wars over whether local heath boards should become the dominant care bodies in Wales.

Is the green lobby a spent force?

The Observer reports that an extraordinary alliance of countryside campaigners, wildlife groups and green activists has launched a savage onslaught on the government, accusing it of showing "stunning disregard" for the environment.

Yet there is otherwise little press interest.

Referring to letters from an umbrella campaign backed by organisations that include the RSPB and the Campaign to Protect Rural England, the paper describes the attack as a significant embarrassment for David Cameron who claimed at the last election that his would be the "greenest government ever".

Given the range of upfront economic issues reported elsewhere today which contribute to a burgeoning austerity, it is unsurprising that concerns exist as to whether Whitehall sees the green agenda as relevant or affordable in the wider context.

The battle facing the environmental establishment, who have arguably experienced comparatively lesser budget reductions and redundancies, is to persuade politicians that this is something more than a middle-class obsession.

Weak but not weekly - for now

Alan Edmunds, managing director of Media Wales did not mince his words when telling a cross-party group of AMs that there is no intention of selling off the Western Mail or turning it into a weekly newspaper.

There were "absolutely no plans" for a slim-down despite the company conceding that it was facing the same dwindling circulation problems as other newspaper publishers.

He told the committee of inquiry, "I can't envisage a scenario, I can't see a scenario where it would make business sense for us to turn it weekly”. It was noticeable however that he did not rule out the possibility should someone else’s imagination within the organisation become a factor.

Edmunds was equally forthright is dismissing the suggestion of a government bail-out (temprorary public ownership) as mooted by Plaid Cymru AM Bethan Jenkins. He claimed that the idea of public ownership was based on “very little substance”.

"Wales needs an independent, private, commercial news service and I think it would be all the poorer if it didn't have one”, he added.

No argument there, but the question persists as to whether the Western Mail has actually been fulfilling this particular role in recent times.

Who benefits?

We’re confident that the assessment by the Institute of Fiscal Studies on the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement will be either rubbished or ignored by ConDem blogs. As a result, we thought it would be useful to reproduce a chunk of what is published in today’s Independent.

The poor will suffer disproportionately from the Chancellor's failure to increase tax credits, a study by the IFS concludes, and will not benefit to the same extent as the better-off from the council tax freeze (because they pay less council tax) and the delay of the fuel duty increase (because they drive less).

The overall effect of the Treasury's new plans will be to reduce the incomes of those in the bottom 30 per cent of earners and to benefit those in the top 60 per cent. The Chancellor's decision will also push more children into poverty, IFS researchers conclude.

Those with an annual income of £15,600 will lose an average of £44.75 in the year 2012-13. Those earning £18,200 will be worse off by about £36 in the same year. By contrast, those with an annual income of £76,100 will benefit by about £105, thanks to Mr Osborne's most recent tax changes. Those with a yearly salary of £45,300 will get £98 more.

As a result of all the tax and benefit measures by Mr Osborne since he became Chancellor in May 2010, the IFS calculates that those in the bottom 10 per cent of earners will see their annual incomes decline by £168 in 2012-13. Those in the second to last 10 per cent of earners will see their incomes go down by £265.

The incomes of the top 10 per cent of earners will decline by £300 and those of the second-highest 10 per cent will fall by £102. Although similar in cash terms to the sums lost by those at the bottom end of the income distribution, these losses represent a much smaller share of the total incomes of the wealthy.

Researchers at the IFS have also calculated that average incomes of people in the UK will drop by 7.4 per cent in the three years between 2009 and 2013. It estimates that average household incomes will be no higher in 2015-16 than they were in 2002-03.

The IFS's calculations on incomes are based on the growth forecasts of the Office for Budget Responsibility – which in turn are based on the assumption that European leaders will "struggle through" the eurozone debt crisis.

No doubt there will be some sniping at the IFS figures by Whitehall and political mouthpieces but the underlying and undeniable message is that this government which talks a lot more about equality than it practices it.

More to the point however is that if this imbalance is the result of a Lib Dem ‘moderating influence’ upon the Chancellor then they should pack it in now.