Giving it attitude

Focus groups are probably already forming to pick the bones out of a wide-ranging YouGov poll conducted on behalf of the Sunday Times (1676 adults surveyed between 27th - 28th October).

Among the usual stuff about political standings and voting intentions is the result that over half of those questioned (54%) thought the coalition was bad for them personally – which is actually a minor improvement on previous polls.

The survey also covered views on wider constitutional issues such as possible changes to the rules of royal succession.

The government would have been encouraged to see that 76% agreed with their moves to dump the present primogeniture arrangement. However, respondents were surprisingly less emphatic (48%) as to whether they wanted to see a Roman Catholics accede to the throne.

And just to show that other old attitudes persist, 45% think Britain has less influence in Europe than it did when Margaret Thatcher was Prime Minister.

Time for the chancellor to listen

The Observer reports that a hundred leading economists have made an impassioned call for the government to step back from the brink of a new economic crisis and back a Plan B to save existing jobs and create new ones, amid growing fears of a double-dip recession.

In a letter to the newspaper, the umbrella group of distinguished experts from across the country argue that the chancellor must rethink his strategy and enact emergency measures to kickstart growth and save the UK from growing unemployment and a further fall in living standards.

They call on the government to consider a host of measures proposed by a body of academics and economists brought together by the left-leaning thinktank Compass. The proposals, in a manifesto entitled "Plan B: a good economy for a good society", will be launched in London on Monday. They include:

• An immediate halt to cuts, to protect jobs in the public sector.

• A new round of quantitative easing to finance a "Green New Deal" to create thousands of new jobs.

• Benefit increases to put money into the pockets of those on lower and middle incomes and give a boost to spending.

• A financial transaction tax to raise funds from the City to pay for investment in transport, energy and house building.

It is very doubtful however that chancellor George Osborne will be influenced by this call for a different approach. The semi-passive attitude by Cameron & Clegg towards news of a 50% increase in directors’ pay has already clarified which section of society is going to carry the main burden of deficit reduction plans.

For all the talk of Liberal Democrats “acting as a bulwark against the worst excesses of the Tory right wing”, there is a familiar Thatcherite ring to statements from both sides of the ConDem coalition which refer to the absence of an alternative.

Listening is clearly not a habit of this government. But it is a habit they need to acquire if the economy is to escape serious and long-lasting damage.

Update: Will the promised £1billion to be spent on 100 projects be enough to kickstart the economy?  And how many of them are in Wales?

Get on yer bike - and deliver some letters

Cerebral right-winger Chris Grayling had his Norman Tebbit moment yesterday by urging the unemployed to take up casual jobs over the Christmas.

The Works and Pensions minister stated that “Now is a great time to apply for one of the tens of thousands of Christmas jobs” as Britain’s 2.57 million joblessness total reaches a 17-year high.

His comments come on the release of figures showing Royal Mail has already been inundated with 80,000 applications for just 18,000 Christmas vacancies.

But as the Sunday Mirror points out, Grayling failed to mention that the postal jobs are at the minimum wage of £6.08 an hour and would cost applicants their Jobseeker’s Allowance if they worked more than 16 hours a week. They would have to reapply after Christmas... then wait about 10 days for the benefit to start again.

Irrelevance and repetition

In issuing "a fierce rebuke to the tory right over Europe" Nick Clegg displays the same kind of courage as the guy who shouts at a chained-up Doberman from the other side of the street. His rhetoric is likely to have the same degree of meaningful impact.

Nevertheless, the Guardian contends the deputy prime minister has launched a full-frontal attack on Conservative Eurosceptics within the coalition, describing their aims as "economic suicide" and ruling out a "headfirst" charge towards a repatriation of powers from Europe.

Er .. so what? It's not exactly different from what he was saying last week. The only remarkable aspect is that he has managed to maintain a policy position for that length of time.

Confirmation

Following on from the previous post, we're grateful to a reliable source who has provided us with a copy of the following email. It appears to contradict attribution claims made on another blog.

From: Straw, Jack (Chief Executive)

Sent: 15 September 2011 09:53


To: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, xxx
 cc: xxxxxxx, xxxxxxxx


Subject: RE: Swansea Conservative Group.

All

I am referring the matter to the local government ombudsman

Jack Straw

Chief Executive,

City & County of Swansea, Civic Centre, Swansea SA1 3SN

Telephone : 01792-xxxxxx

Prif Weithredwr

Dinas A Sir Abertawe, Canolfan Ddinesig, Abertawe SA1 3SN

For the moment, we're willing to believe that previous denials as to who made the referral to the local government watchdog are the result of a misunderstanding. We assume that a correction will be forthcoming.


Update: (30 Oct) Peter Black told a local radio phone-in show, via e-mail, that he had withdrawn certain comments on his blog over who did what because they were "being used by individuals" to pursue their own agenda. Amazing.

Not a matter of crying wolf

The inference to be gained from the Beans on Toast’s rather indulgent account of a possible roads for votes scandal in Swansea is that accusations of misconduct against council leader Chris Holley is pretty humdrum stuff.

Based on the figures proffered (presumably supplied by council spin corps) the view that County Hall is full of time-wasting complainants admittedly appears a reasonable assessment.

It’s certainly a notion held by Peter Black, even though he himself has some ‘prior’ for shopping fellow councillors over alleged misconduct and has even been known to throw a serious strop when the ombudsman has initially declined to play ball. Of course, the same could be said of Chris Holley who cited 32 opposition members to the local government watchdog for walking out in protest when they were refused an opportunity to debate controversial council business debated in public.

And who could forget allegations of ageism levelled at Rene Kinzett by two cabinet members who objected to his disrespectful comparison of their abilities and his cat's when it came to running the council.

But leaving aside these inconvenient contradictions – which is the example set elsewhere – surely the practice of trading chunks of public expenditure in exchange for political support in the council chamber should be considered at least a bit dodgy. Especially when someone sets out the actual details in a bunch of official council e-mails.

As it happens, and now that he has had about nine weeks to look into the evidence provided, the Public Services Ombudsman thinks there is a prima facie case of misconduct to be investigated. We understand that interviews with the accused trio, the complainants and several council officers will begin in coming weeks.

It was this news that prompted Rene Kinzett to finally go public and for Swansea's Lib Dems plus supporting cast to initiate their smoke & mirrors routine. Today’s downplaying is a case in point whilst another example is Peter Black’s insistence on his blog that the council’s chief executive had not been involved in referring the misconduct complaint. It’s worth noting that these exchanges have since been deleted – which is just as well since the contentions were irrelevant and unsustainable.

Ombudsman staff motivated by the prospect of senior political scalps and a desire to rebut previous accusations by Swansea councillors of unfitness will be keen to make a thorough job of their investigations. We suspect they will also quickly dismiss the facile argument that the substance of an allegation is diminished by the standing of the individual who makes it.

It would probably be too much to expect the press to apply the same objective yardstick from time to time.

Another scandal brewing

The Daily Mail has been pursuing a campaign to expose abuse of the Motability system whereby benefit cheats are able to obtain discounted top-of-the-line cars by feigning a disability.

The paper will shortly mount a campaign to name and shame miscreants and we were wondering whether a certain permanently fatigued Swansea councillor – who is currently on a spell of sickness absence – will soon be appearing in their pages.

Our hopeful speculation is driven by rumours of very recent photographs currently circulating in Calamity Hall which show him up a ladder painting his house whilst his brand new and specially converted Vauxhall Insignia sits in the driveway.

Anyone know if the Mail use headlines like “Gotcha”?

A little early for humbug

It must be quite a problem having only five AMs to deal with three times as many portfolios. The inevitable outcome is something resembling the archetypal mid-west town where the sheriff is also the local undertaker and feed-store owner. You may cover all the bases but quality suffers in the application.

So its understandable that Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams would prefer voicing headline-grabbing populist "concerns" at an overall reduction in hospital beds than engage in debate on changing health care demographics over the last decade.

Earlier this year, the Welsh Lib Dem manifesto stated that the party, if elected to power, would be

Making sure that hospitals are seen as the last resort – prevention and community treatment should be where most healthcare takes place. We will prioritise investment in community facilities to ensure that people get better treatment and at a lower cost.

Yet nowhere in the document is there a commitment to introduce more hospital beds. Nor is Kirsty making any such pledge now. Ho hum.

Keeping out of the splatter zone

Following the less than revealing report on BBC Wales Today tonight, the understandable local reaction is mild confusion as to whether there is actually any smoke, let alone fire, associated with allegations of misconduct in high places at Swansea Council.

Viewers were left with a sketchy account of events that only seemed to confirm that everyone involved is either keeping schtum or else saying the bare minimum. This all too evident sparsity of fact plus a few sub judice considerations may explain why it dropped from first to fourteenth on the list of news items by teatime.

Having said all that, a referral by the council chief executive to the ombudsman about possible willful misconduct by the city’s top two councillors remains some pretty serious shit. The local government watchdog will be obliged to investigate what is essentially an official complaint. There can be no suggestion of a whitewash in light of the senior positions held by the accused and the possible breach of public trust involved.

An (almost) inside source within Calamity Hall, who claims to have seen some of the evidence, insists that the uncompromising action taken by the council in reporting the trio was prompted by a well developed sense of self-preservation among council officers. This reflex response was reportedly activated when incriminating emails from deputy leader John Hague to a Conservative member came to light.

There are no details as to who received copies of what is alleged to be the offer of an inducement to vote a certain way in consideration for various highways work. However, a local government officer who was either complicit or failed to report the wrongful use of public expenditure would be deemed to be as much up to their neck in things as any politician who initiated such a crooked move.

Once the evidence was waved around, the matter quickly assumed the qualities of a plutonium-coated hot potato. The only viable option available was a rapid referral to the ombudsman, possibly via the cop shop, followed by an obligatory attempt to keep a lid on things. Some hope.

Holley has remained remarkably splatter-proof over the years. Even so, party colleagues are said to be urging him to cut loose an accident-prone Hague before the debacle turns into what many fear could be a Lib Dem “leisure centre” at next year's elections.

We are slightly sceptical that things would come to that - mostly because the scenario requires an effective opposition as much as a inept failing administration. Another factor would be a vocal newspaper willing to give front page prominence to the shady brand of politics that prevails among the ruling Swansea Administration group.  


For the moment the only person currently fulfilling a whistle-blowing role is Rene Kinzett and he looks certain to be dumped by his own side.

Council shops senior members to ombudsman

You might remember how we mentioned last week that senior Swansea councillors had been fingered over possible misconduct and described the bizarre set of political circumstances of how they were grassed up.

It all went public today with a BBC Wales story of how two Lib Dems and a tory are under investigation by the ombudsman for allegations of misconduct. They named council leader Chris Holley, his deputy John Hague - who leads the Independent group - and deputy tory group leader Paxton Hood-Williams.

As we reported, the allegations refer to a purported back-door deal between the tory group and the ruling Lib Dem/Independent ruling coalition. The idea was to trade support on key votes in exchange for getting work done in their wards in advance of May’s elections.

We had previously been told that it was none other that Conservative leader Rene Kinzett who blew the lid on matters. However, informal Labour sources also claim to have had a hand in things by supplying their own evidence to make sure it was chief executive Jack Straw who reported the trio to the Ombudsman.

This is not the first time that Holley has found himself in hot water over wheeler dealing. In 2009, an inquiry team was set up to look into the dubious way that an assessment from engineers Laing O’Rourke had been presented to a council committee. The investigation was deemed necessary when it came to light that the study had been conducted by the firm as a “personal gift” to Holley.

How much damage these latest charges will do to Holley and his tired-looking administration depend on the outcome of enquires and whether the local paper can be bothered to take an interest beyond what they get spoon fed by council spinners.

All that said however, we confidently predict widespread donning of brown corduroys if the ombudsman rules that ‘friendly accommodations’ which are the staff of life in Welsh local government are deemed to be a breach of the code with all the consequences that entails.

Planning committees would never be the same again.

Tipping the balance to the right

The Westminster coalition is pressing ahead with its plans to dismantle UK workers rights. Having imposed new regulations which require two years employment qualification before staff can claim against unfair dismissal, Nick Clegg today announced government plans that will enable bosses to rid themselves of older and “underperforming” employees.

The deputy PM took his party further to the right by announcing that older workers could face being sacked or told to consider retirement by their employers. New rules would prevent affected staff from legal protection against ageism.

This development, which is apparently intended to ”tackle red tape and stop regulators breathing down the necks' of businesses” will probably come as a surprise to activists who heard no such plans at the recent conference in Birmingham just a few weeks ago. Indeed they were promised measures to build growth and produce a balanced economy.

Clegg however feels that the appropriate balance in this instance is to give employers the freedom to have "frank discussions" with underperforming workers without any consideration for their age or worries that anything said might end up repeated in an employment tribunal. There is no indication that staff would enjoy similar levels of immunity.

The Lib Dem leader claimed the moves are motivated by a desire to introduce deregulation and would help to "remove much of the red-tape that stifles competitiveness in the UK" - and no tory minister could put it better.

But what his words effectively mean is that he and his mate Vince have signed their party up to the age-old right-wing tory philosophy that low pay and employment insecurity are the only tools you really need in government to boost economic prosperity.


Update: More leaked info on government plans to screw workers.

City champion slams council performance

Swansea Council leader Chris Holley has got a problem – and it revolves around his so-called city centre ambassador Sticky Dick Lewis who has gone all native on him, or more likely just reverted to type.

Having got the non-job of ‘monitoring’ matters in the city’s declining retail hub soon after traders described the city centre as “dire”, he subsequently made a few half-hearted attempts to talk himself things up. But not even a consummate flannel merchant like Lewis could sustain that level of bullshit and he has since gone on record as saying the council needs to make serious improvements and clean up its own act.

Unsurprisingly, he is also claiming that plans to cut city car park charges in the run-up to Christmas are his idea although others further up the political food chain say something different.

The negative comments are clearly intended to be critical of Holley, who is supposed to have overall responsibility for the city centre. They also probably preface a move by Lewis to jump ship before the end of the year and fight next year’s elections on a resumed independent ticket. A former tory who turned independent before they chucked him out, he joined the Lib Dems a few years ago to make sure his got his elusive mayoral stint after a number of setbacks had denied him the chance.

It's noticeable that few in Calamity Hall seem to disagree with this rumour of intended flight – including several Lib Dems who appear distinctly happy at the prospect of losing someone so reliable in his unreliability.

Shaping up

David Cameron is relishing an opportunity to show his parliamentary party who’s boss, according to the Independent on Sunday.

The paper says the Conservative leader is preparing to face down more than half of his own backbenchers in a long-anticipated stand-off over Britain's relations with Brussels.

Current estimates are that at least 100 tory MPs will back a motion demanding a referendum on European Union membership or else defy a three-line whip by abstaining.

Many would-be rebels have spent the weekend garnishing support from their constituency associations. Endorsements for putting up two fingers to the PM have been readily forthcoming as no-one seems to relish the situation more than the party’s hard-core right wing who think it is high time that the coalition-happy cabinet was reminded about brass tacks.


Update: Sarkozy does his bit to help things along
Update2: For Nick Robinson, it's all a matter of trust.

Speaking from little experience

It's been illuminating to read how Elenud Morgan, who more or less walked out of her Strasbourg office and straight into the House of Lords, feels that Wales, or rather Labour, has missed a trick in its priorities by not properly embracing the business sector in the past. We imagine Rodders loved that one.

Her call to recognise commercial realities will intrigue many who are aware that, apart from a recent short PR stint for a low carbon outfit, her previous employment experience prior to becoming an MEP was as a BBC & S4C researcher before going on to be a stagiaire (intern) in the European Parliament.

Few will be surprised however at the political finger-wagging from someone who always considered herself destined for something better than a safe Assembly seat – not that one was ever offered her.

Spot the difference, if you can

Wintour & Wyatt in the Guardian helpfully point out the marked similarities between the following passage in the Lib Dem election manifesto

The European Union has evolved significantly since the last public vote on membership over thirty years ago. Liberal Democrats therefore remain committed to an in / out referendum the next time a British government signs up for fundamental change in the relationship between the UK and the EU.

and Monday's Commons motion which reads:

That this House calls upon the Government to introduce a Bill in the next session of Parliament to provide for the holding of a national referendum on whether the United Kingdom should(a) remain a member of the European Union on the current terms;(b) leave the European Union; or(c) re-negotiate the terms of its membership in order to create a new relationship based on trade and co-operation.

They also mention how Nick Clegg flounced out of the House of Commons on 26 February 2008 after the [then] speaker, Michael Martin, refused to call a Lib Dem amendment demanding an "in / out" referendum.

Lib Dems however will be voting against the motion. Quelle surprise.

Local priorities? Probably not.

Unwelcome confirmation that Swansea Council finds itself challenged when asked to organise the proverbial in a brewery comes with news that the city's annual fireworks display will be brought forward to 4th November to accommodate an evening rugby game at Liberty stadium.

Local authority officials, and presumably their political masters, reportedly think two evening events might cause congestion throughout the city's road network, despite the fact that the 'competing' venues are four miles apart with different start times.

Leaving aside the obvious comment as to who is responsible for the present chaotic state of Swansea's roads, the conclusion is that the council would prefer to risk diminishing the practical purpose of a safe organised Bonfire Night rather than use its influence to get the rugby fixture changed.

Or should we believe the e-mail sent by 'Groundsman' who states the driving factor for the decision is a desire by the political hierarchy to be able to attend both events with their families & invited guests whilst enjoying the facilities of private boxes at both grounds?

Incitement charges on the back burner

You might remember Sion Owens, the publicity-seeking BNP dipstick who was arrested back in April this year for burning a copy of Quran - along with his partner who filmed the act (and caught her own reflection as she did so).

The pair were later released on a technicality after being wrongly charged. South Wales Police and CPS assured the media that "investigations would continue" with a view to a future prosecution. Nothing has been heard since.

However, in the course of our enquiries, we understand there is a chance that the case will soon be quietly dropped due to yet another problem with paperwork. It's also rumoured that Owens could be pursuing a compensation action.

It's a bit sickening to think that this attempt to incite public disorder could go unpunished. Especially when you consider that he would have got four years if he'd done something similar on Facebook. He might even have been evicted from his council house.

Memory man speaks

One of the more pointless pieces of news published today is that Nick Clegg apparently thinks the death of Colonel Gaddafi sends out “huge signals” to other dictators. How incredibly astute.

Pity that he wasn’t as up on things when events started kicking off in Libya. If memory serves, at a time when hundreds of British nationals were struggling to return home, he managed to ‘forget’ that he was running the country in Cameron’s absence.

Disability plans will haunt ConDems

Disability campaigners are entitled to ask what's happened to all the Lib Dem moderating influence on excessive Conservative zeal to dismantle the welfare state - especially as warnings sound that thousands of claimants could be left with little or no financial support. The trouble is that they already know the answer.

About 3.2 million disabled people, including children, currently receive the existing Disability Living Allowance. However, findings provided by Scope, a major charity that champions disability issues, says a proposed test of claimants' need is flawed because it concentrates on disability alone and fails to take important issues such as the cost & availability of housing and transport into account. Many families risk losing essential payments as a result.

This is not a one-off situation. Earlier this year, we blogged about a series of protests aimed at the DWP and contractors Atos over the flawed work capability assessment and the bizarre methods used by agency staff.

Claimants are asked if they watch EastEnders or Coronation Street on the basis that a positive response means they can sit and concentrate for 30 minutes whilst a woman with mental health problems had been found ineligible for the benefit because she "did not appear to be trembling . . . sweating . . . or make rocking movements".

Around the same time, the Guardian highlighted serious credibility gaps in Cameron’s declared intention to attack the “sicknote culture”. In August this year, research by the Papworth Trust flagged up concerns that 85% of claimants would have to cut back on basics if plans to replace Disability Living Allowance left them worse off.

The Disability Wales conference in Newport yesterday heard that a "pincer movement" of cuts to benefits and social care would leave disabled people in Wales bearing the brunt of the government debt reduction plans. Simon Duffy, director of the Centre for Welfare Reform, told delegates the cuts were “not because the government hates disabled people. I don’t think the government thinks about disabled people, they think about voters, they think about staying in power.”

ConDem ministers will be expecting more similarly negative headlines as charities and campaigners line up to condemn the changes. But whilst disabled peoples minister Maria Miller remains resolute on the way forward, the sting as ever could well be felt in local ballot boxes next year.

As one disabled campaigner forcibly puts it on his campaign blog, “Forget tuition fees, this is a far worse betrayal....The reason that people have turned their backs on Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems is because he turned his back on us the moment he walked into Downing Street. If we can’t vote the deceitful bastards out of Westminster until 2015 we can at least vote them out of our townhalls in 2012.”

No grey area there.

When the cat's owner is away ....

Sticking with the subject of fractured Conservative unity, we understand that Derrick the cat's owner (otherwise know as Rene Kinzett) has fallen out big time with his tory group colleagues on Swansea Council.

Details are a little confused but it is reported the semi-detached leader went ballistic on uncovering an alleged back-door deal between his group and the ruling coalition which traded support on key votes in exchange for a favourable response to one or two parochial issues.

No-one seems to be able to clarify if the quid-pro-quo arrangement actually went ahead as different versions keep emerging from various sources. Similarly, there is some discussion as to whether the often absent Kinzett was more pissed at being kept out of the loop or that his Mayals ward apparently failed to benefit in any way.

Whatever the circumstances, the gist is that Rockin' Rene has grassed up his group colleagues and the council leadership to the relevant authorities and earned himself some serious political enmity in the process - not that he was overly popular to start with.

The spectre returns

Nothing seems to poison Conservative unity as much as division over Europe. Whilst party managers believe that the call for a referendum is the work of the usual suspects, several commentators, including BBC parliamentary correspondent Mark D’Arcy, think the debate will leave its own toxic legacy.

David Cameron’s unequivocal refusal to back what is in effect a piece of constitutional jiggery-pokery is no less symbolic than the cunning parliamentary drafting of David Nuttall’s motion. Nonetheless, as D’Arcy points out, the more general option for renegotiation of the terms of UK membership probably encompasses the views of most Tory MPs.

Leaving aside the overt tactical thinking on both sides of the schism, tory whips are confident that they can see off the rebels without too many hurt feelings. Similarly, they regard the possibility of renewed dissension of the kind that spawned UKIP and James Goldsmith’s Referendum Party as a low risk scenario.

Their sanguine attitude comes from knowing that any well-aimed attacks on the PM as someone who talks tough about interference from Brussels but is as hamstringed as his predecessors will be blunted by the revisionist jingoism associated with such heady occasions.

On the surface, it seems that there is more chance of Brit revanchist elements in the USA being able to successfully challenge the legality of the Declaration of Independence.

But even if the argument is seen as all but won in the chamber, it is in the constituencies – where boundaries and majorities are about to change dramatically – that a Eurosceptic party membership still has to be won over. It is likely that more than a few honourable members with a strong survival instinct will conclude that the best short-term strategy is to align themselves with their association committees rather than their whips.

It could all end up being a lot closer – and a lot more poisonous – than Cameron's entourage currently like to think. Even so, they will not be alone in feeling that the only surprising aspect about this confrontation is that it has taken this long to surface.

Update: Guido adds to the tension.

Will Swansea seek a Basildon solution?

As the barricades come down at Dale Farm, a friendly source at Calamity Hall reports that Swansea Council faces a similar dilemma over whether to clear an illegal traveller site. Next week's special cabinet meeting will asked what action, if any, is to be taken to remove caravans which have set up on the Swansea Vale commercial park.

The prime riverside site presently serves as a park & ride facility for Liberty Stadium on match days but is in danger of becoming an established camp ever since a member of the ruling group with delusions of authority managed to screw up repossession attempts a few years back.

Over 54 tonnes of general waste, 4.5 tonnes of recycled material and 106 tyres have been removed from the site in recent times.

The cabinet is to be told that any action, i.e. removal measures, will incur "non-budgeted costs" and the inference is that nothing will be done as a result. We understand that the legal implications will be discussed in a separate report to heard in private session.

Inaction may not be an option however as complaints continue to mount from Swans fans and surrounding businesses. Whether Swansea has the bottle or the backing to effect a Basildon solution remains to be seen.

So much for scrutiny

You may have missed it among the more vitally topical health-related headlines about body-piercing but another ministerial move announced yesterday involved a almost casual scrapping of the 22 existing Local Safeguarding Children Boards and a move to replace them with six new Safeguarding and Protection Boards, covering both children and adults.

Perhaps ‘announcement’ is an overstatement under the circumstances insofar as a press release was issued but those affected appear to be left guessing over the actual details. To date, there is no reference to an oral or written statement or even a news item on the Welsh Government’s snazzy looking website either.

Having previously blogged on the piss-poor level of accountability exercised over these inter-agency bodies, we find ourselves as unimpressed by this latest reconfiguration attempt as with the earlier stated and [now] contradictory intention to speed up child protection processes under Section 47 of the Children Act 1989.

Some months ago, the Health, Wellbeing and Local Government Committee (as was) published its own report into Local Safeguarding Children Boards in Wales. Among the 20 recommendations it contained was one that Welsh Government should issue guidance to “clarify the specific focus of LSCBs and their role in holding other partnerships to account”. It also stated that ministers should address the “differing safeguarding thresholds” applied by agencies throughout 22 local authority areas. A parallel joint review by five government bodies in turn highlighted a need for councils to “show more leadership”, i.e. transparency about shortcomings.

There is serious doubt as to whether these six new organisations will be equipped or capable of delivering a uniform and honest alternative to the discredited current arrangement. Similarly, it seems that the ability of individuals to cloud the various shortcomings of participating agencies with redacted versions of reports and belated regurgitations of the “lessons have been learned” mantra will continue unchecked.

Little wonder then that the announcement went out as and when it did.


Late Update: This appeared the next day.

Taking it outside

This week, Swansea’s Lib Dem-dominated cabinet is very likely to sign up to some best-guess calculations that argue in favour of what unions have labelled back-door privatisation. Officially, the proposal is to form a Local Authority Trading Company to deliver adult social care in the city.

It’s a significant step along the ideologically driven path that takes the council from the role of provider to one of enabler several times removed. Yet it’s not an entirely unexpected one despite last year’s acute embarrassment when the council’s reassuring talk to staff about a ‘developing a social enterprise model’ turned out to be little more than an outsourcing exercise.

Whilst other local authorities elsewhere in the UK are getting increasingly concerned over falling regulatory care standards, social services cabinet member Nick Tregoning is urging his executive colleagues to continue preparing for externalisation. This recommendation comes regardless of there being no meaningful business plan available plus an open admission that initial running costs are likely to be substantially greater than present.

In keeping with Swansea’s renowned ability to turn policy-making into a pig’s ear, the report also suggests waiting until September 2012 in order to consider further progress updates and make a final decision (of sorts).

The only certainty involved in the entire sorry process at the moment is that it won’t be Tregoning making the final recommendations should the current administration survive next May's elections. He was recently deselected as a Lib Dem candidate.

Welcome to their world

Whilst Tories and their Lib Dem running dog lackeys partners chunter on about how the NHS in England is to be safeguarded against service cuts compared to Wales, the Guardian exposes the reality across Offa’s Dyke:

Birth centres are closing, patients are being denied pain-relieving drugs and leaflets advising parents how to prevent cot death have been scrapped because of NHS cuts which are increasingly restricting services to patients, evidence gathered by the Guardian reveals.

The NHS's £20bn savings drive also means new mothers receive fewer visits from health visitors, support for problem drinkers is being reduced and families are no longer being given an NHS advice book on bringing up their baby.

People with diabetes and leg ulcers are seeing less of the district nurses who help them manage their condition; specialists delivering psychological therapies are under threat and a growing number of hospitals are reducing the number of nurses and midwives to balance their books.

All in all a far less rosy picture than the ConDems paint whenever they make their comparisons.


Update: Kirsty makes an offer. Will the minister refuse (or just ignore it).

Waiting for the other shoe

The news is that the Consumer Prices Index - the lower and therefore the government's 'preferred' measure of inflation - has risen to 5.2% for September (compared to 4.5% in the previous month). Given that a large chunk of the inflationary rise stems from ever-increasing gas & electricity bills, yesterday's 'intervention' meeting with energy providers takes on a slightly cynical tinge, don't it.

Meanwhile, UK households will be waiting to see if the declared figure translates into a similar increase in pensions and a series of related state benefits. The rumour is that nameless treasury sources are already talking about "delays in factoring in this recent information with regard to spending programmes". Sounds ominous.

Do as we say ....

Sometimes you only have to sit and wait for the contradictions to come around. A prime example today is the suggestion by Peter Black of how the "Liam Fox affair has provided an opportunity for the Liberal Democrats to press for more urgency in introducing the register of lobbyists" and the revelation by Guido Fawkes that accomplished lobbyist and former Lib Dem head of communications Olly Gender is an acting pro-tem spinner for Nick Clegg at No 10.

Wonder what it says on her business cards.

Update: The Mail provides its own details of how government is "in thrall" to lobbyists.

What will it take to deliver the budget?

Senedd sources report a unsurprising amount of gossip over the coffee and panini as to how seriously Carwyn Jones is willing to regard the expediency of a ‘partnership budget’ as a coalition in everything but name. It is a conundrum that also occupies some minds in the media.

It was interesting to read the observation by Matt Withers that ‘some Lib Dems think a Labour- Plaid arrangement is all but agreed”. Whilst he questioned the inevitability of such an outcome he also quoted the Lib Dem insider who admitted that “Carwyn hasn’t picked the phone up yet”.

Current low-key betting however is that a potential short-term deal between Labour and Lib Dems to deliver and support a budget package is more likely. As one ex-advisor states, “going along with Kirsty’s call to freeze council tax Wales is better than skipping down Plaid’s yellow brick road”.

This viewpoint seems to be supported by the number of clever press briefings recently issued which describe how the Party of Wales see a Calman-style funding review as “the Silk route to independence”.

There is an ill-disguised impatience among Labour AMs at Plaid’s post-electoral inability to recognise let alone reconcile the competing challenges of holding government office and retaining electoral popularity. As much as several cabinet members built up good working relationships with nationalist colleagues, few seem eager to repeat the experience.

As for self-determination, the prevailing outlook is that recent academic research strongly implies a majority of Welsh voters think that an assembly with law-making powers in 20 policy areas is as much independence they need or desire.

Which brings it back to the original question of how to do a sustainable deal with Welsh Lib Dems without causing serious disquiet among Labour activists looking to win back key council seats next May. And who says that going to the local polls as Labour's partner will be Kirsty's immediate inclination either.

All current factors taken into consideration, the general take among the entourage who wander the lobby is to expect a series of interminable but otherwise fruitless discussions on various principles which will result in line-by-line voting on the budget followed by a series of messy accommodations. So no change there then.

No comment

Daily Telegraph

Press 2, Politicians Nil

One certainty in this otherwise uncertain world is that today’s lunchtime toast over at the Society of Editors is in honour of Liam Fox and Oliver Letwin for services rendered.

What better vehicle to provide validation for the public interest argument than the transgressions of a couple of senior government MPs? It couldn’t have been planned better - but best to put that particular thought on hold for the time being.

Whatever your view on the content of the defence mounted by Paul Dacre at the Leveson seminar or the Newsnight spat between Mensch and Coogan, it is remarkable how publishers have brought the contentious issue of press regulation back to Westminster’s doorstep so promptly and so effectively.

Nick Robinson thinks that the damaged Defence Secretary might still go – but is obliged to refer to a Times story over the Werritty’s ‘backer’s as collateral for advancing his view.

His account from the sidelines may prompt further dark murmurings about a discernible tendency of how it is the license fee that decide what is – and what is not – the news that counts. But for the moment, and regardless of conspiracy theories, it is definitely Grub Street that occupies the shifting high ground.


Update: Fox gives up the limo

Answers on a postcard

So there you go, despite more than £6bn of European money and match funding, official figures show that West Wales and the southern valleys have become relatively poorer.

BBC Dragons Eye is looking for a comment (and possibly even an explanation) from the Welsh government as to why Objective One cash has failed to produce a rise in comparative wealth in areas that have seen massive amounts of investment.

We will be watching tonight to see if one is forthcoming.

Same old, same old

The talk at Calamity Hall is that yet another complaint has gone off to the Ombudsman over alleged misconduct in high places. This time the accusation is one of connivance among certain selection committee members to ensure that the "right person" got appointed to some technical panel or other. In short, somebody's mate with the correct political credentials was slotted into position against the advice of   officers - who presumably wanted their buddy to get the nod. It is Swansea Council we're talking about after all.

Unemployment - it's all down to Johnny Foreigner

According to that rather sound Chris Grayling fella, the reason for UK unemployment rising by 114,000 between June and August to 2.57 million (a 17-year high) is all down to those dashed eurozone chappies.

As he also quite reasonably spelled out, the important reason why we are pursuing deficit reduction is to “retain the confidence of commercial markets, and to encourage businesses to set up in the UK”.

But wouldn’t you know it, those weak-kneed nellies over at the British Chambers of Commerce have came up with almost the opposite and even had the cheek to suggest that deliberate government dismantling of the public sector means less contracts for private sector firms and unemployment – BAE Systems being a case in point, according to the long-haired lefties.

Never mind the blasted quantitative easing or whatever you call it. At this rate we’ll have to damn well go out and invade someone. Now …who have we got left?

Following the money

It was only a matter of time before someone unearthed a decent backscratching aspect to the ongoing Foxgate revelations. Ironically it is the Telegraph who highlight how Liam's unofficial advisor Adam Werritty has been "provided with a free desk" by multi-millionaire tory party donor Michael Hintze.

It's all academic 'innit?

Is it simply tedium that lies behind the remarkably subdued level of blogging responses to the post-electoral analysis by the Institute of Welsh Politics? Or is it that this particular exercise in the blindingly ‘effin obvious represents bad news for pretty much everyone? Does anyone care?

On balance, the perspectives provided by the Welsh Agenda blog in exploring the state of local government in Wales makes for a far more absorbing read.

Sting in the tale?

As the veteran journalist once cryptically observed as he slumped even further on his barstool, sometimes the real story isn’t the one that gets written. Thus we find ourselves pondering if this maxim applies to today’s revelation in the Western Mail about electoral events that were thought to have been settled. Or its just tittle-tattle with no more than minor embarrassment value for Welsh Lib Dems?

It seems that a belated technical challenge has been mounted by a local Labour activist over alleged shortcomings in the process that allowed previously disqualified regional AM Aled Roberts to slip in under the wire.

Such actions are not exactly uncommon in North Wales politics but the twist is that Bill Brereton, unsuccessful Lib Dem candidate for Wrexham and former deputy chief constable, also appears to have leaked confirmed that he wants senior party officials to clear up the discrepancy between Roberts’ claims that he had been misled by inaccurate info on the Electoral Commission website and a statement by the organisation that no hits had been recorded on the day in question.

Whilst the recommendation in favour of reinstating the former Wrexham council leader to the Senedd seemed to many to be based more upon the balance of possibilities rather than anything credible, very few Labour AMs seem intent on forcing the matter, despite the actions of their Clwyd South colleagues.

However, what remains to be seen is the extent to which the disgruntled and the deselected among North Wales’ Lib Dems are willing to take things further. Now that’s a story.

The humbling of Huw Bach

You can tell that things are bad when the cosy Welsh socio-political establishment starts chewing at its own entrails. Even so, the timing employed by Leighton Andrews in publicly demanding the resignation of loveable Huw Thomas from his UoW sinecure smacks more of amateur dramatics than usual.

Such indecent haste to name, shame and sack makes you wonder if there is more at stake that initially meets the eye. Surely a better script was available than the one whereby the curse which besets the University of Wales can attributed to a single villain – especially when there is arguably a larger cast of players who should share a significant chunk of the blame.

But the unacceptable alternative is to conclude that ultimate responsibility lies with whoever has been happy to sanction the substantial amount of funding assigned to this troubled institution over the years.

And that would be ….?

BNP scams exposed (again)

Recommended viewing is tonight’s edition of Panorama and its exposé of dodgy financial dealings within the BNP.

Key figures leading the fragmented nationalist rabble are under investigation for alleged fraud and breaches of electoral law.

The involvement of EU investigators and the Metropolitan Police follows claims by a former member of staff that she was told to falsify invoices sent to the Electoral Commission.

Nick Griffin, who frequently found himself hauled before the High Court over financial 'anomalies', has predictably denied any suggestion of wrongdoing. However, the BBC current affairs programme will question the methods by he managed to reduce the party’s debts from £570,000 to a reported £52,000 in just 12 months. 

According the former party worker Marion Thomas, it comes down to a series of scams and some creative accounting which involved alteration of invoices and lying about payments.

Panorama: BNP - The Fraud Exposed, tonight at 8.30pm

Public sector pays the price

It is not as though confirmation was needed of how the government’s recovery plan is basically flawed from an employment perspective, but the Chartered Institute of Personal and Development (CIPD) nonetheless obliges by highlighting how the number of public sector jobs lost since April is five times greater than the Office for Budget Responsibility projected for the entire year.

The current attrition rate suggests total employment losses will be 50% higher than forecast. The CIPD is calling on the government to scale back on public sector job cuts or risk “sapping the strength of those parts of the economy that were creating jobs in the initial part of the recovery”.

Private sector redundancies are also running at levels substantially above those projected by the government. Service and manufacturing sectors are equally affected with 52,000 people having to seek new work. 

There is no indication of the ‘employment migration’ that Cameron and Clegg told their respective parties would happen. Research indicates that public sector job losses in the second quarter of 2011 far exceeded net private sector job creation.

Nevertheless, Treasury officials have described themselves as “sceptical” about the CIPD projections – in much the same way they dismissed Institute of Fiscal Studies suggestions that ConDem deficit reduction plans were regressive and would damage future growth prospects (duh!).

In other words, and as Norman Lamont once held, unemployment remains a price worth paying in order to sustain a right-wing economic ideology.

Liam lingers on - for the moment

Westminster has been awash with reshuffle rumours ever since the ushers started stacking the chairs in Manchester. Among the more entertaining tidbits was speculation that Eric Pickles will replace Ken Clarke as Justice minister. Also heard at the buffet queue was a suggestion that Health secretary Andrew Lansley might possibly be headed for a spot of ‘exhaustion’ in coming weeks.

The overall view among conference watchers was that David Cameron was under no pressure and could probably wait until the Christmas break before making any changes to his cabinet team.

advisor provided MOD access

Things changed this weekend however with further disclosures over the close relationship between Liam Fox and his unpaid crony advisor and which could well accelerate any potential timetable.

Yesterday, the PM was talking unequivocally about having utmost confidence in his embarrassed, if not embattled, Defence Secretary. Today, he is ominously reported as wishing to see the evidence gathered so far in an internal probe.

Interestingly, the Independent on Sunday refers to Adam Werrity as an “arms dealer” when advising its readers that an urgent internal departmental inquiry is focusing on the role of close friend of the Defence Secretary in securing business deals for his contractor clients. Meanwhile the Telegraph helpfully explains how a series of allegations surfaced this weekend over the “unusual involvement” of his “former flatmate”, in brokering meetings as well as the access he enjoyed to government despite having no formal parliamentary or Whitehall role.

Everyone seems to have a senior Downing Street source willing to comment on how tenuous Dr Fox's ministerial position has become whilst the Mail on Sunday just wants his head stuffed on a pike outside the MOD’s Whitehall offices.

As ever, the best indications come from the bookies. Political Betting has Fox at 5/4 to be the first cabinet casualty with odds shortening following this afternoon’s statement and apology.