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Will a reshuffle include the big FO?

The aimless weekend speculation among the 'knowing' - aka political paparazzi - is of a ‘quickie’ cabinet reshuffle sometime in the next few weeks - most likely precipitated by the anticipated exit of Chris Huhne in order to clear his name or whatever.

Most press observers think that Andrew Lansley is already being manoeuvred out the door by a spectacular lack of support from Downing Street. The quiet betting is that Ken Clarke will also become the personification of Justice in that not only will he be done but be seen to be done around the same time. A projected 2:1 casualty ratio should more or less satisfy those Conservatives preoccupied with a ’balanced’ cabinet and a bit more nous in the right places.

Self-appointed bookies suggest that Lib Dem Paul Burstow, current minister for care services, could be in the running for a highre spot with his past aggression towards tory coalition colleagues actually standing him in good stead. They are less sure about whether junior Justice minister Crispin Blunt has a similarly bright future.

A really intriguing facet however is the veiled suggestions creeping out of the Cabinet Office that Foreign Secretary William Hague could have done a “more effective job” over Libya. The implication is that he has been repeatedly wrong-footed by Hilary Clinton’s interventions and allowed Sarkozy to lead him by the nose on troop deployments.

No-one seems to be too bothered as to whether any of these inferred allegations are even vaguely accurate. Simply the fact that thay are apparently being said at all is probably enough to ruin one's Bank Holiday weekend.

Silly burghers

You cannot help but feel that members of Gorseinon Town Council have probably diddled on their doorstep for the last time by creating a situation whereby two people can claim to have been elected mayor at 'competing' events (?)

We are not at all surprised to learn that fed-up locals are already pointing to the example of Ynys Mon where Welsh Government ministers suspended the county council for similarly inane goings-on. In the case of Gorseinon, the sad fact is that local democracy is too valuable to be left in the hands of people who clearly lost the plot along with the last remnants of local respect.

Quizzical

The speculation in the atrium is that it was one of Andrew RT Davies’ entourage who judiciously highlighted how fellow tory leadership contender Nick Ramsey has recently been “banned” from his local pub.

It will be interesting to see if anyone within Gower Conservatives is tempted to recount how Farmer Davies has a bit of form himself.

70% say Labour not ready to govern

Reuters report that an Ipsos MORI poll shows Conservative support has fallen slightly but that most people do not believe the Labour opposition is ready to govern.

A telephone poll of 1,008 adults aged 18+ between 2-24 May indicates that people blame Labour for the country's economic woes. Ed Miliband’s party however is up two points from last month on 42 percent. Support for the Conservatives fell five points to 35 percent of those who plan to vote. Backing for the Liberal Democrats rose one point to 10 percent.

Only three in ten of those polled thought that Labour was ready to form a government a year after losing power.

An Ipsos MORI spokesperson said, “We're seeing a slight decrease in the Conservative vote share this month compared to last month but that's not translating into a boost for Labour in any other ways.

"Cameron is still ahead on leadership ratings. The coalition is seen as divided on some issues but retains a united front on the key issue of the economy. There's no clear benefit for Labour nor crisis for the coalition."

Not so clever after all

If Lib Dem MP John Hemming was expecting to wake up this morning to widespread adulation for naming Ryan Giggs during an urgent Commons question on privacy orders then he was likely to be disappointed.

Despite agreement among the media that the injunction used by the Man Utd player to conceal his affair is dead in the water, several also report that many MPs are unhappy at the way Hemming used parliamentary privilege to ask if it would be practical to imprison the 75,000 Twitter users who had also named the player. Even the Guardian is still pondering over what is (or is not) qualified privilege in this instance.

The present muddled situation over privacy laws is clearly unhelpful but it is arguable that Hemming has done little to change things. And before anyone seeks to espouse the cause of press freedom in their newsletters, they should pause to remember that the capricious public apparently still has more time for flawed sportsmen than it does for the noblest of politicians.

Merlin failing to do the trick so far

There is little actual surprise that the ConDem government’s soft-option initiative supposedly aimed at forcing banks to help commercial investment has failed to deliver on its first milestone. Project Merlin was supposed to see lending of £76bn to SMEs in 2011 - equating to £19bn a quarter. Bank of England figures show that in the first three months of 2011, the top five UK banks loaned £16.8bn – a 2.2bn shortfall.

Is Merlin Mickey Mouse?

Many small firms continue to report that a bank credit remains hard to obtain, with viable companies under threat because they cannot get loans.

A recent survey by the Federation of Small Businesses found that only 16% of their members had been encouraged to approach their bank for credit and of those 44% had been refused.

The backtracked terms of the 'magical' deal brokered between desperate ministers and a reluctant banking sector have been heavily criticised. Specific venom has come from Lib Dem peer Lord Oakeshott who complained that treasury officials “couldn't negotiate their way out of a paper bag” and that the banks had put up two fingers to the coalition government over the scale of bonuses. He subsequently resigned as their treasury spokesman.

Business Secretary Vince Cable agreed that there is a “serious problem with lending to good, small companies.”

He stated, "We looked to the Merlin agreement to rectify the problem and... we want to see significant improvement over the next few months. We will monitor the banks' performance extremely closely and if they fail to meet the commitments they have agreed we will examine options for further action”.

What's he going to do - declare war?

Un-investable

According to the local newspaper, Swansea traders have branded the city centre ‘un-investable’. They cite rising rates, traffic chaos and issues with drugs & alcohol as the reasons.

So far the response from Lib Dem-run Swansea Council has been a few shrugs and not much else (Council leader Chris Holley will probably get around to blaming someone else in the next few days or so).  

Meanwhile, market trader Chris James said businesses were losing out because traffic routes were leading motorists around the city and effectively bypassing the centre. Tony Collins, who operates a formal hire shop in College Street, stated "Swansea is now un- investable. Cardiff has got a waiting list for retailers, Swansea has an empty shop list."

The article states that local authority officers have pledged to attend future meetings called to devise at action plans. Business groups are entitled to ask however why their council’s political leaders, who turn up with regularity to enjoy freebies at Liberty Stadium, can’t manage to attend crucial talks aimed at safeguarding the city centre’s future.

The unforgiven

Politics is an unforgiving business, as quite a few could testify. One day you’re in and the next it’s as if the earth has swallowed you up. The press no longer eagerly seek your comments, the freebie invitations stop overnight and even your own colleagues begin to airbrush you out of the collective consciousness.

For example, Plaid AM Bethan Jenkins does not even mention the loss of her former Assembly members Dai Lloyd, Helen Mary Jones and Nerys Evans in a post-election assessment blog entry entitled Aftermath.

Now what could possibly be the reason for such an omission?

Greasing the wheels

A glaring confirmation of the grossly unfair world of public probity is a comparison with the Welsh Lib Dems in limbo and the case of Tony Blair's former special envoy to Iraq who lobbied the country's Prime Minister on oil contracts for BP just three months after leaving government service.

The Independent reports that Sir Jeremy Greenstock, who was formerly Britain's ambassador to the United Nations – and who made the case for invading Iraq – was warned against developing business links with Iraq by the watchdog responsible for ethical oversight on the activities of former civil servants. He seems to have largely ignored the advice but the rules regarding a conflict of interest seem rather different for non-elected government officials – and former prime ministers.

Early doors?

Maybe there’s some sort of technical glitch on Freedom Central, but an earlier post which claimed that two Lib Dems had been suspended on a “technicality” has disappeared. Perhaps this has something to do with the withdrawal of a motion to reinstate John Dixon and Aled Roberts after they had been found to have breached election eligibility rules.

The suspicion is that the two regional AMs were less than confident about their potential success as list candidates and were hedging their bets by hanging on to certain statutory offices – a disqualifiable offence as they have since discovered. Others cite plain incompetence on the part of Lib Dem party managers.

Having earlier attempted to downplay the matter however, no less than Peter Black is now calling for “contrition” from those involved. Perhaps this is because he has also seen the written legal opinion circulated today which suggests that the individuals could be disqualified altogether if the matter goes to an electoral court. This would mean that the next names on the regional lists are elected.

Update: Former legal chief turns the screw.

Acountability? Not on our watch

Swansea Council meets today to do its annual carve-up of sinecures. As we mentioned, opposition parties are expected to attempt an ambush over some key positions, although the ruling bunch are confident that they have enough votes in the bag.

But whilst the respective groups jostle for advantage, will they also be reflecting on the sad state of affairs that of the 45 separate committees, panels and working groups listed on the agenda, only 16 will be open to the press and public? Will they be thinking of how each of these meetings can also go into closed session at any time and without challenge? Probably not.

It would be easy to castigate opposition groups for allowing the city’s Lib Dems to impose something very different to the 'era of openness and transparency' they once promised – were it not for the fact that the last time other parties collectively demanded to have an issue discussed in public (against the advice of officers) their members found themselves investigated by the ombudsman and subsequently threatened should they ever repeat such an “offence” in future.

Reverting to type

Within days of completing his year of office as Swansea’s civic media-tart first citizen, we hear that Sticky Dick Lewis is rapidly returning to his old avaricious ways by threatening to leave the ruling administration unless he is given a senior paid post. Having joined the Lib Dems to secure the mayoral chain, the Gower councillor now plans to publicly dump his former colleagues unless he gets the main chairmanship. We understand that he has also been busy touting the idea of a rainbow arrangement among various political groupings.

Responses could be described as "mixed" but these cynical, self-serving antics are going on against the wider backdrop of other quiet weekend gatherings and late-night phone calls in advance of tomorrow’s reconvened annual meeting.

Expectations are for a repeat of the minor coup a few years back which saw opposition parties grabbing key chairmanships whilst allowing the cabinet to stay in place. The resignation of a single Lib Dem has removed the ruling coalition’s working majority and the act of snatching away paid positions is seen as a way of further damaging council leader Chris Holley without actually replacing him – or taking on the role of managing a series of massive spending cuts.

Holley is either oblivious to the threat or else gives it little credibility. Ever the politician, his priority at present is in seeking renewed reassurances from his independent buddies that they will be not be standing in wards held by Lib Dems next year.

Update: Sources tell us that Lewis can expect "f'all" tomorrow. They add that he has been informed that Lib Dems would be "glad to see the back of him" if he pissed off back to the tories.

Further Update: Opposition groups reported to be going for "everything except cabinet". Expect blood on the chamber carpet.

Losers get the limelight

In case anyone didn’t notice, Swansea’s Lib Dems had an appalling Assembly election.

Besides their habitual fourth place in Gower they slipped to third spot in their “target” seat of Swansea West with a 9% drop in support. A similar percentage fall in popularity saw them dumped from second to fourth in Swansea East. All in all, it was a miserable performance which augurs very badly for next year's local elections.

And yet it was AM Peter Black, who himself managed to scrape a local regional seat, who was the invited studio guest on the Widow Twanky radio phone-in show this morning. Hmmm.

Reasons to be remorseful - part one

When a politician talks about the urgent need to conduct a post-mortem, it usually means that they see an opportunity to rattle some old bones in order to make a point or maybe even a leadership bid. Whether Dafydd Elis-Thomas falls into this category in stating yet again how Plaid got it wrong is anyone’s guess.  Some might say that the likes of Nerys Evans have already paid the price of negative campaigning and that its time to move on. Some party apparatchiks have apparently already come to that conclusion - although the actual direction is imprecise as yet.

A more insightful analysis of poor performance is provided by Darren Dupre in his assessment of the BNP’s failure to make anything like the inroads they had hoped. The fascist spin is that they beat the Lib Dems in four of the seven FPTP constituencies they contested. Dupre takes that claim apart very adequately but points out the underlying dangers in assuming that the BNP are finished as a political force. As it happens, Nick Griffin spent a miserable election night in Swansea in the delusional belief of a possible breakthough in South Wales West. 

Which leaves just the usual suspects to provide their own unique form of denial.

“Muscular liberalism” sees police commissioner plans dumped by peers

Nick Clegg yesterday gained first-hand experience of the “muscular liberalism” he had earlier expounded when Lib Dem peers voted down ConDem government plans for elected police & crime commissioners.

The Guardian reports that the action marks a serious defeat on the coalition's first anniversary, especially for Clegg, who at the last minute sent whips round to convince his party's members to back the bill.

Some 13 Liberal Democrat peers, including the notable rebel Lord Oakeshott, were among the 188 peers who voted for an amendment which removed the gimmick of elected police officials. Enough Lib Dems also abstained to deny the government a majority.

The proposals were never likely to get a smooth ride through the Lords given that it was Lib Dem peer Lady Harris, vice-chairman of the Association of Police Authorities, who moved the amendment with backing from former Met commissioners, Lord Blair, Lord Condon and Lord Imbert. Their collective warning was that the imposition of the posts in place of police authorities would be akin to the appointment of commissars.

Meanwhile, an independent poll commissioned by the Institute of Government (IFG) suggests the government has failed to convince the public that coalitions are good for the country. More than two- thirds of people believe the government is weaker, less decisive and "confused" about what it stands for.

The IFG poll found that 63% of people think it is a bad thing that no party won a majority at the election – up from 55% a year ago. Some 68% think that coalition has created a weaker government, 73% believe government is less decisive and 80% say the government is "more confused" with a coalition.

Making the moves

Yesterday, Lib Dem-leaning Martin Shipton was clearly finding it hard to come to terms with the possibility of Welsh tories securing second place spoils in exchange for propping up a near-enough Labour majority. He is probably more relaxed to learn that the PO slot is not as settled as first thought, allegedly.

Nevertheless, and in spite of querulous background chatter elsewhere, the manifest re-emergence of two-party politics in Wales post-May was always on the cards. As such, it is something for which the press and other political groupings seem curiously unprepared. Even when you accept that the pre-election math was mainly occupied with majority government scenarios, the possibility of a mutually acceptable accommodation between the main players instead of a formal deal with Plaid or Lib Dems seems to have largely escaped some onlookers and/or would-be participants. No doubt the loss of key political personnel in some quarters is making the process of readjustment a difficult one.

But it’s time to get into game, even if the rules – and the stakes - are not quite the same as before. Labour’s apparent disdain for displays of triumphalism and a nice touch in patronising comment about how all four main party manifestos contained some jolly good ideas may sound like a step towards pluralism but it is nothing of the sort. The deals are yet to be done, and if they happen they will undoubtedly be stoutly negotiated for Carwyn is on a roll.

What he has managed to do within days of leading a solid campaign has been to establish himself as shrewder and markedly more coherent in the role of Labour leader and First Minister than his rambunctious predecessor ever managed under similar circumstances. The measured, leader-like comments are a stamp of his house-style and must make a reassuring change for Labour AMs who used to visibly wince over Rhodri’s maverick one-liners.

The big ask is for Carwyn to how he goes about translating the current available goodwill into something practical that can take his party into the realms of sustainable government. He may have to squash a few internal dissenters and provide sinecures for dead-weights but that all comes with the territory. The eventual outcome may not  turn out to be an ideal solution from everyone’s perspective but it will be done with more of a mandate than has been seen in recent times.

Continuity or change for Plaid?

The more sceptical readers might detect a thread of self-interest running through the encouragements to Plaid Cymru’s hierarchy from off-stage that a One Wales Part Two is the optimum scenario. It may well be the case for Dav-El but he does not seem to be expressing a hugely popular view among the membership. Nor is there widespread endorsement for his insistence that there is no potential leadership vacancy.

The former presiding officer appears confused about the source of Plaid’s negative and unsuccessful campaign strategy (as if) but it was IWJ who sanctioned the approach and took a prominent role in attacking his former coalition partners.

As everyone knows, a “period of reflection” for a beaten party inevitably means holding up a mirror to the leadership. Consequently, the safe option for party elders is to offer Ieuan an opportunity to isolate himself from the coterie of policy strategists who will be later cited as the reason why Plaid lost four seats and a couple of key Senedd players. It will certainly serve until some of the more semi-delusional staffers disappear up their own rationalisations. But it does not address the wider issues confronting the Party of Wales or even help to define them.

“I’m thinking about the welfare of Wales, not the party”, says Cynog Dafis. Others however are likely to be a lot less altruistic in the short term.

An end of pick & mix politics for Lib Dems?

BBC deputy political editor James Landale is a noted trend watcher and his recent focus on the Lib Dems’ identity crisis – or probably more aptly a multi-personality disorder - is an analysis capable of drawing nods from several quarters.

His overall assessment, regardless of the recent collateral damage sustained at the polls and over AV, is that Clegg and his party must stay in government. The “brutal truth” as he puts it, is that the Lib Dems have nowhere else to go. They are locked into a government whose fate depends on economic recovery in four years time. There are no other alternatives and the only hope is hang in there whilst banging on that the that Lib Dems remain a mitigating factor within a pragmatic coalition arrangement.

But the underlying dilemma which Landale observes to be constraining the third force in UK politics, and the reason why Lib Dems cannot afford to disengage, is that by finally defining themselves as a party of government, the party has managed to lose its fuzzy appeal which once enabled them to successfully influence diverse sections of the electorate for different reasons. He writes:

For years they have won votes from a variety of voters, many of whom have had vastly differing ideas of what the party is about and for.

Those who thought the Lib Dems were a soft-left, anti-war alternative to Labour have long gone.

Those who thought the Lib Dems were a party of civil liberties and electoral reform alone have been left puzzled and disappointed by their coalition with the Conservatives.

Some who thought the Lib Dems were a respectable centrist alternative to the Tories in the South West have either drifted away to UKIP or been attracted by David Cameron's social liberalism.

And of course, many who voted Lib Dem just to protest against the government of the day can no longer do so.

At one level, this extensive and rapid disaffection is evocative of the scene in the B-movie where the mind-ray used by alien invaders to disguise their presence on earth is finally deactivated - although equating Lib Dems with reptilian insurgents is probably stretching things a bit. Well, perhaps not if you’re a tory cabinet minister.

What continues to puzzle observers however is that Lib Dems collectively don’t appear to have an inkling as to why people have stopped voting for them. Some blame the spending cuts, others blame the broken promises, and others just blame the fact of their being in coalition with the Tories. Few put their hands up to the state of affairs whereby they can no portray themselves as all-things-to-all-voters role and expect to be given the benefit of the doubt.

And whilst Landale talks about the “straitjacket of government”, enough electors spotted the significance of Lib Dems ministers and their parliamentary familiars consciously deciding to back a hike in tuition fees rather than resign over reneging on a manifesto commitment.

This is not so much an identity crisis for the party as a serious need for Lib Dems to regain their reputation as a nice if rather misguided bunch of well meaning people who seem to have lost their way a bit but have their our overall best interests at heart – and lots of luck with than one.

Sooner or later, the Lib Dems will be forced to decide what they are for and how they intend to make it happen. But they are running out of time. As the first anniversary of the coalition deal approaches, Clegg needs to convince his party that the long haul does not equate to a slow death. At the moment, most activists see an arrangement which gained five years in government in exchange for decades of subsequent electoral obscurity. At present, very few see it as a good deal.

The new man in grey

For many, the initial reaction to the news that Paul Davies has been appointed interim leader of the Conservative Group is likely to be “Who?” – it’s a response just prevalent among the bubble-bound press as anywhere else.

The subdued cheering at the Western Mail over the demise of occasional hate figure Nick Bourne will been have further muted by the failure of heir-apparent Jonathan Morgan to beat off a dynastic Labour challenge. So imagine the anguish that greeted the reported ascendancy of the guy who they recently described as having a style “as grey as a February morning in Rhyl”.

The paper will also probably be gutted to learn that current betting is that the Preseli Pembs AM is to be “unopposed”, i.e. other possible contenders will be leaned upon.

Update: Seems the earlier info was inaccurate - or did a weekend phonecall entice Mr Davies into (informally) supporting another candidate?  

No change at Calamity Hall

Strange as it might seem, we rather tend to agree with council leader Chris Holley in that there is likely to be no difference within Swansea Council over a single Lib Dem resignation. The timing is admittedly a little strange but the decision is not entirely unexpected given the individual involved. In all practical respects, we anticipate the same blundering stalemate to prevail at the hands of the ruling administration, regardless of evened out voting figures.

An equally significant (non) event is that Labour leader David Phillips went unchallenged at the recent AGM – despite well-trailed rumours of a popular coup. No reason has been given by the purported challenger’s camp but it's noticeable that the present incumbent is also keeping schtum.

Pulling apart

A popular condemnation, to which even some sections of the press themselves cheerfully admit, is the extent to which the London-based media still don’t “get” devolution.

One example appears in the Guardian where political editor Patrick Wintour ascribes the SNP’s stunning victory as one “caused by a collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote and a rudderless Labour campaign”. Wintour is actually citing the Holyrood result along with other outcomes as indicators of the resilience of tory support elsewhere, but it is surprising that he misses the attractiveness of separatism to an electorate who appear eager to give their own answers to the West Lothian Question.

SNP leader Alex Salmond has wasted no time in letting it be known he has a clear mandate on the next moves for his majority government and that it involves a referendum on independence. David Cameron has indicated that he has no problem with this. He quite likes referendums and will be buoyed by his party’s performance at the expense of Liberal Democrats who went from lame-duck to dead-duck status overnight.

Wintour is right however in that it will be an intriguing constitutional process under which independence or “dis-union” is achieved. Plaid Cymru must be looking on wistfully.

Waiting game

The events of last night were probably best summed up by the un-named defeated Welsh Assembly candidate who when asked about the seeming polarisation of voting trends replied that it was “more like bi-polar”. You can understand his viewpoint based on the utcomes of a contest more notable so far for its significant losses than anything else.

The changes in numbers and personalities however make the dynamics of coalition a lot more intriguing. No doubt the phones are already ringing – even before the outstanding regional and North Wales declarations.

Update (14:00): No overall majprity for Labour. Would the Lib Dems make more acquiescent 'partners' or are Plaid ready to drink again from the poisoned chalice?

Selling the Big Society

The BBC is reporting leaked info that government plans to outsource public services are to be scaled back.

According to their sources, ministers want to use more charities, social enterprises and employee-owned "mutual" organisations as they think wholesale privatisation would be politically "unpalatable".

The question which arises from this shift is whether the ConDem government can make the savings it has promised through what is an unproven and largely unpopular means of service delivery.

The Beeb speculates if the change signals further Conservative concessions to Lib Dems who want greater focus upon smaller local sell-offs. This is unlikely however given the probable source of the “leak”.

Private sector reaction is said to be one of "surprise and disappointment".

Those who can do - those who can’t report

There are seldom bouquets to be received in politics where, to paraphrase a famous quote, most careers end in failure and occasionally worse. Yet whilst there are few who excel and possibly even less who inspire, the role of the elected representative is arguably as much as calling as a career.

The people who do the job and those who aspire to the responsibility of elected office soon find that rewards are vastly outnumbered by rebukes and that you can be pressurised by conflicting constituencies of interest which often pull you in a very different direction to your original aim. To your constituents, you are a free resource; to your party, you are expendable and to your family, who flinch on your behalf over personal attacks, you soon become an empty chair at the dining table.

Of course, no-one forces them to do it and the motivation involved for most is seldom altruistic. Even so, just the act of stepping up to the plate rather than jeering from the sidelines is something which deserves recognition if not respect.

What a pity that the Western Mail website chooses to mark this aspect of democratic representation with a mealy-mouthed arbitrary “assessment” of out-going Assembly members.

Their spiteful piece adds very little to the sum of political understanding other than an oblique confirmation as to why the relevance of the Newspaper for Wales continues to diminish in proportion to its dwindling circulation figures.

The wisdom of chewing on the hand which feeds your meagre news appeal is something that the Western Mail and others may wish to reflect upon whilst writing up their analytical articles on celeb underwear during the forthcoming recess.

Is Clegg over his coalition phase?

The Independent reports comments by Nick Clegg over how this week's referendum on voting reform is likely to change the nature of the coalition Government, regardless of the result.

According to the paper, Clegg states the AV poll will mark the end of the "first phase" of “real collective discipline" and herald a period in which the parties can express their differences more openly in future. Observers agree but cite the real reason will be a necessity for the embattled Lib Dems to concentrate on its continued survival in the wake of what are expected to be disastrous results in municipal and regional elections.

MPs who are already questioning the benefits of being in government in light of the anticipated long-term electoral damage are reportedly telling each other that only a total split will save seats the next time around. It is doubtful however that a challenger will emerge from among parliamentary ranks to exploit this viewpoint.

Meanwhile, and to add further insult to injury, a recent YouGov poll suggests that electors won’t even give Clegg credit for being “prepared to take tough and unpopular decisions”. Only 5% thought the statement applied to the Lib Dem leader whilst 53% agreed that David Cameron definitely displayed this kind of quality.

Says it all, really.

Rules of engagement

The problem with multiple bank holidays is that they have such a deadening effect on news-gathering abilities. It takes the death of a terrorist supremo to shunt the top story away from royal wedding twattle and anything else in between tends to get readily sucked up by desperate news editors looking for 'topicality'.

Hence a tacit connection between Cameron's casual sexism and coverage of a “UN-based” Wales Assembly for Women women's group by BBC Wales which criticised a lack of response by Welsh Assembly candidates to its open letter that raised “gender equality issues”.

Their spokesperson sees this as an indictment. Yet it’s a reasonable assumption that the ninety-something percent who did not respond – and which will include a large proportion of  women candidates – either thought it was not necessary to reply or will have never heard of the organisation. Not too surprising since a little more research by the Beeb might have revealed that the Cardiff-based WAFW doesn’t appear to have premises or even operate a website (as such) although they do get a mention in the Wales Equality Network.

Of course, that is not to say that they are inactive in their field or fail to highlight the many social and institutionalised inequalities that still confront women in the UK. It is merely that one expects a degree of presence and meaningful activity from any group which is apparently ready to accuse others of a lack of engagement.

There’s a lot going on next Thursday

As the Guardian points out, it’s going to be a busy time for candidates and counting staff next week.

Here in Wales, the main attention is upon the Assembly elections with the AV referendum almost relegated to 'add-on' status. Journalists and commentators have been complaining that campaigning over both issues has been “a bit flat”.

Maybe so, but this appears not to be the case in England where a total of 30,983,233 people will be voting in local council elections on 5 May. Some 9,396 of the country's 18,225 council seats are up for grabs in 279 local authorities.

A total of 30 unitary authorities and 124 district authorities, including Blackpool, Leicester, Nottingham and York, will be electing all their members for the first time since 2007.

Attention is focused on cities such as Sheffield, where Labour need just three seats to gain a council majority and Newcastle where Labour need only six more seats to take control of a territory where the Lib Dems have previously enjoyed strong support.

A parliamentary by-election will also be held in the constituency of Leicester South after the Labour MP, Peter Soulsby, stood down to run for the first-ever mayoral contest in the city. Labour will be defending a majority of 8,808.

As well as Leicester, mayoral elections are happening in Middlesbrough, Mansfield, Bedford and Torbay.

In Scotland, 129 MSPs will be elected to the Holyrood parliament - 73 through the constituency-based first-past-the-post system and 56 through a separate party list system in eight electoral regions. The shape of the parliamentary map is significantly different this time with the boundaries of more than half of the constituencies re-drawn since 2007 and one in six voters are now in a different seat.

Voters go to the polls in Northern Ireland to elect 108 members to the new Stormont Assembly. They will also be electing 582 councillors to 26 councils in the first local elections for six years.

Both Assembly and local government elections are conducted using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system.

Update: For what it’s worth YouGov is quoting the latest Rallings and Thrasher’s local government projections based on their by-election model. This has Conservatives on 35%(down 5 from 2007), Labour on 38% (up 12 from 2007) and the Lib Dems on 17% (down 7 from 2007). This would equate to a Labour gain of around 1300 council seats, with the Conservatives losing just shy of 1000 and the Lib Dems losing around 400.