What will it take to deliver the budget?

Senedd sources report a unsurprising amount of gossip over the coffee and panini as to how seriously Carwyn Jones is willing to regard the expediency of a ‘partnership budget’ as a coalition in everything but name. It is a conundrum that also occupies some minds in the media.

It was interesting to read the observation by Matt Withers that ‘some Lib Dems think a Labour- Plaid arrangement is all but agreed”. Whilst he questioned the inevitability of such an outcome he also quoted the Lib Dem insider who admitted that “Carwyn hasn’t picked the phone up yet”.

Current low-key betting however is that a potential short-term deal between Labour and Lib Dems to deliver and support a budget package is more likely. As one ex-advisor states, “going along with Kirsty’s call to freeze council tax Wales is better than skipping down Plaid’s yellow brick road”.

This viewpoint seems to be supported by the number of clever press briefings recently issued which describe how the Party of Wales see a Calman-style funding review as “the Silk route to independence”.

There is an ill-disguised impatience among Labour AMs at Plaid’s post-electoral inability to recognise let alone reconcile the competing challenges of holding government office and retaining electoral popularity. As much as several cabinet members built up good working relationships with nationalist colleagues, few seem eager to repeat the experience.

As for self-determination, the prevailing outlook is that recent academic research strongly implies a majority of Welsh voters think that an assembly with law-making powers in 20 policy areas is as much independence they need or desire.

Which brings it back to the original question of how to do a sustainable deal with Welsh Lib Dems without causing serious disquiet among Labour activists looking to win back key council seats next May. And who says that going to the local polls as Labour's partner will be Kirsty's immediate inclination either.

All current factors taken into consideration, the general take among the entourage who wander the lobby is to expect a series of interminable but otherwise fruitless discussions on various principles which will result in line-by-line voting on the budget followed by a series of messy accommodations. So no change there then.