David Cameron’s unequivocal refusal to back what is in effect a piece of constitutional jiggery-pokery is no less symbolic than the cunning parliamentary drafting of David Nuttall’s motion. Nonetheless, as D’Arcy points out, the more general option for renegotiation of the terms of UK membership probably encompasses the views of most Tory MPs.
Leaving aside the overt tactical thinking on both sides of the schism, tory whips are confident that they can see off the rebels without too many hurt feelings. Similarly, they regard the possibility of renewed dissension of the kind that spawned UKIP and James Goldsmith’s Referendum Party as a low risk scenario.
Their sanguine attitude comes from knowing that any well-aimed attacks on the PM as someone who talks tough about interference from Brussels but is as hamstringed as his predecessors will be blunted by the revisionist jingoism associated with such heady occasions.
On the surface, it seems that there is more chance of Brit revanchist elements in the USA being able to successfully challenge the legality of the Declaration of Independence.
But even if the argument is seen as all but won in the chamber, it is in the constituencies – where boundaries and majorities are about to change dramatically – that a Eurosceptic party membership still has to be won over. It is likely that more than a few honourable members with a strong survival instinct will conclude that the best short-term strategy is to align themselves with their association committees rather than their whips.
It could all end up being a lot closer – and a lot more poisonous – than Cameron's entourage currently like to think. Even so, they will not be alone in feeling that the only surprising aspect about this confrontation is that it has taken this long to surface.
Update: Guido adds to the tension.
Update: Guido adds to the tension.
4 Comments:
Idly wondering if the recently deposed Liam Fox is sufficiently pissed at Cameron to cause problems. What about Zac Goldsmith - is he a chip off the Eurosceptic block?
ConservativeHome has a list of 61 rebel tory MPs -
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/parliament/2011/10/58-mps-including-46-tories-sign-next-thursdays-european-referendum-motion.html
Gudio puts it at closer to a hundred
What I find pathetic is that the Lib Dems made it a manifesto commitment to force a referendum vote and have now Nick Clegg has told MPs to oppose the motion. Of course, they did exactly the same thing over tuition fees.
Good post. The toe-rags really do fall apart when the vexed questions of Europe or Human Rights come up for discussion. From what I can see, the three main parties are going to apply the whip anyway so it will be the un-promotable and those unsure of reselection who will step out of line.
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