Crossing the lines

BBC Wales political editor Betsan Powys warms to her post-recess role by speculating on what arrangements await Welsh MPs and AMs next January now that Labour has ‘conceded’ the idea of a common set of boundaries for both the Assembly and Parliament.

Her conclusion is that Peter Hain has helped to prepare (if not actually cook) his party’s Yuletide goose through a series of ill-conceived interventions that argued against the Scottish process of decoupling constituencies. Such a move would have enabled a continuation of the current geographical balance of power, or so received wisdom would have it.

Ms Powys holds that that opposition parties are attracted to a 30:30 constituency & list set-up for the Assembly which would not only safeguard present seats in the face of parliamentary cull but possibly even presage an increase in future Senedd numbers. She is probably right. But whether this outcome is any more achievable, or desirable, than the configuration suggested by a learned document which emerged last year is a debate yet to be had. Moreover, the continued confusion as to who are the appropriate participants in these deliberations strongly implies a screw-up in the making. 

For some, a process of ‘equalisation’ in representation vis-a-vis Westminster and Cardiff Bay is a natural outcome of the powers referendum. For others it is a reasonable widening of the West Lothian question. If there are to be less Welsh MPs, albeit for reasons of UK-wide electoral parity, they argue, then there is a justifiable role for the First Minister and the Senedd in arguing the case for Wales in a different forum.

That’s the theory anyway. But the reality is that the coming months are more likely to see members of the respective political camps indulging in internicine chicken-run strategies than any sort of serious constitutional debate. We're talking about Wales, after all.