Making the moves

Yesterday, Lib Dem-leaning Martin Shipton was clearly finding it hard to come to terms with the possibility of Welsh tories securing second place spoils in exchange for propping up a near-enough Labour majority. He is probably more relaxed to learn that the PO slot is not as settled as first thought, allegedly.

Nevertheless, and in spite of querulous background chatter elsewhere, the manifest re-emergence of two-party politics in Wales post-May was always on the cards. As such, it is something for which the press and other political groupings seem curiously unprepared. Even when you accept that the pre-election math was mainly occupied with majority government scenarios, the possibility of a mutually acceptable accommodation between the main players instead of a formal deal with Plaid or Lib Dems seems to have largely escaped some onlookers and/or would-be participants. No doubt the loss of key political personnel in some quarters is making the process of readjustment a difficult one.

But it’s time to get into game, even if the rules – and the stakes - are not quite the same as before. Labour’s apparent disdain for displays of triumphalism and a nice touch in patronising comment about how all four main party manifestos contained some jolly good ideas may sound like a step towards pluralism but it is nothing of the sort. The deals are yet to be done, and if they happen they will undoubtedly be stoutly negotiated for Carwyn is on a roll.

What he has managed to do within days of leading a solid campaign has been to establish himself as shrewder and markedly more coherent in the role of Labour leader and First Minister than his rambunctious predecessor ever managed under similar circumstances. The measured, leader-like comments are a stamp of his house-style and must make a reassuring change for Labour AMs who used to visibly wince over Rhodri’s maverick one-liners.

The big ask is for Carwyn to how he goes about translating the current available goodwill into something practical that can take his party into the realms of sustainable government. He may have to squash a few internal dissenters and provide sinecures for dead-weights but that all comes with the territory. The eventual outcome may not  turn out to be an ideal solution from everyone’s perspective but it will be done with more of a mandate than has been seen in recent times.