Stealing the goalposts

Among the non-wedding news casualties in yesterday’s press was a fascinating story in the Independent that senior Conservatives will attempt to ditch the AV referendum result if it goes the "wrong way."

Nigel Morris, deputy political editor, claims that a last-minute move will be made to block adoption of a new electoral system if there is deemed to be a substantially low turn-out of electors. No2AV campaigners think they can argue that the result would lack legitimacy given the important constitutional nature of the change.

A senior Conservative MP is quoted as saying, “Suppose there was a tiny majority in favour of AV, but only 20 per cent of the country took part in the referendum; people on our side would find it hard to accept. There would be contact with the business committee." He suggested a turn-out of 50 per cent should be required to give legitimacy to a Yes vote – a hurdle that could be impossibly high to clear.

The Government fought off attempts to impose a 40 per cent threshold to make the referendum outcome binding. But a fresh attempt to block a Yes vote in the event of a low turn-out would present David Cameron with a dilemma. He would almost certainly argue that the result should stand, but would face fury among Tory backbenchers.”

It is an intriguing notion that the Commons Business Committee would take it upon itself to intervene, as has been suggested, but stranger things have arguably happened in the past.

Besides staging major ceremonies, it has to be admitted that stealing the goalposts rather than simply moving them is something at which the UK establishment also excels.