Having suffered an ignominious drubbing at the hands of Barnsley’s electors, Lib Dems in various capacities are earnestly explaining to press & fellow activists how (1) they didn’t really try this time (2) coming second last June was a fluke and (3) that a bounce-back is still on the cards. Yet even upbeat party president Tim Farron admits the cumulative effect of this result, the biggest drop in terms of ranking at an English by-election since 1945, and their significant failure at Oldham East & Saddleworth bodes very ill for coming contests in May.
A predictable action on the part of every politician who ever drew breath is to advise caution about extrapolating the outcome of a single by-election result – and then go on to do precisely what they warn against. It is in that same spirit which we have to ask if the apparent supplanting of the Lib Dems by UKIP as protest vote recipients might catch on elsewhere.
UKIP in Wales is currently enjoying very similar levels of support to Kirsty’s crowd, if YouGov polls are any indication, and there are already signs that the europhobic party could be a natural home for the third of voters who felt the Assembly did not deserve the right to be able to make laws without reference to Westminster. Whilst it is tempting in mainstream circles to dismiss the UK independence party as fringe nutter material, the undeniable inroads made by the disparate True Wales demonstrates how a little misinformation can go a long way. In these days when politics - or at least voting - seems to be all about people "sending a message", it is not difficult to imagine a better organised and more focused negative platform being able to attract significant numbers of protest votes looking for a 'meaningful' home.
The traditional targets in the past for the erratic Mr Farage have been pro-European tories but the emergence of Con-Dem politics has clearly changed their game plan. UKIP has yet to really declare their hand. Nonetheless the prospect of a new protest vote emerging within the Welsh political dynamic is an intriguing one. Just as interesting however is to what extent Labour and Plaid believe themselves immune from this new phenomenon – especially as they have been eager to define the purpose of the referendum by reminding voters that they will have a chance to deliver a verdict on the Assembly’s performance in May.
11 Comments:
Be careful. Your post is in danger of letting the genie out of the bottle. Regardless of the smug posing outside the Senedd building yesterday, it remains a fact that a third of those who voted are not convinced that the Assembly works for them. More importantly, over two-thirds of the electorate were not particularly interested in the outcome either way.
The extent of popular indifference towards constitutional politics should greatly worry the four Welsh parties as it would not take too much effort for someone to turn it into electoral disaffection.
Top marks in perspicacity for Nick Clegg in spotting that Wales isn’t Barnsley but it does have issues with how willingly the shallow Lib Dems have abandoned their pre-election pledges and embraced anti-public sector tory values.
Have the new Welsh powers enabled The Assembly to hold their own referendum on EU membership?
@Gillig
Does it matter? The Barnsley by-election didn't have such constitutional status either. People have a habit of choosing how and when they make a protest and what it is they want to protest against. It's all about "sending a message" as politicians are wont to say.
When has receving 2953 (12.2)% as UKIP did in Barnsley Central ever been seen as a breakthrough.
Coming a very poor second is hardly an endorsement.
And I don't seem to be hearing from UKIP taht the 36.5% turnout was poor and meant the vote did not count as they no doubt claim over the similar tirn out in the Referendum.
If a Labour MP had been jailed in Wales or Scotland for corruption then both Plaid or the SNP would have had a huge swing.
What happened in Barsnley has shown that there is no Left of centre party that can appeal to English voters.
I am not sure that I agree with the analysis out forward by Glynbeddau on the Barnsley results. Labour extended their majority on a reduced turnout and the spread of opposition votes was fairly typical of a by-election pattern. But we must also recognise that many electors respected Illsey and felt, perhaps cynically, that his only crime was to have been found out. Voters are a lot less puritan than newspapers and politicians would have us believe.
The second placed Liberal Democrats of less than a year ago saw their support collapse, due as much to lacklustre campaigning as any backlash, but the votes did not go instead to the tories or back to Labour. It was UKIP who used intelligent local campaigning to position themselves as the ‘natural’ place to register an anti-Labour vote or to express disillusionment with Cameron & Clegg and benefitted accordingly.
It is something of a stretch to suggest that Plaid Cymru is the obvious choice for a protest vote in Wales against Con-Dem policies in Westminster. It didn’t work against Labour in 2010 and not much has changed. Moreover, the Party of Wales is far too closely linked to Labour for many voters who might be seeking a distinctive voice, no matter how reactionary in nature.
If the referendum has achieved anything then it has been to make it relatively easy for UKIP candidates to target vulnerable Plaid areas and exploit the anti-devolution sentiment which has surfaced in recent weeks.
"If the referendum has achieved anything then it has been to make it relatively easy for UKIP candidates to target vulnerable Plaid areas and exploit the anti-devolution sentiment which has surfaced in recent weeks" says Renoir.
I agree that Ukip could do well in the May Assembly elections if it taps into "the anti-devolution sentiment", but obviously it won't find this sentiment among Plaid supporters.
For as the recent YouGov poll showed, 75% of Tory supporters backed a No vote, as did 45% of Libe Dem voters. Add the anti-devolution rump in Labour's heartlands and it becomes obvious which parties need to fear Ukip.
If Renoir disagrees then let him identify "the vulnerable Plaid areas".
what anti-devolution sentiment Renoir? the no campaign...if such a thing can be said to have existed...ran a campaign that was almost entirely based on turning the referendum into a vote of confidence on the issue of devolution for wales itself...and they were comprehensively rejected by the people of wales on march 3rd!
As for UKIP's prospects in wales of course they will attract some support in the polls in may...just as they did in the european elections in wales in 2009....there's nothing new or earth shattering about some people in wales voting for ukip...as sadly we probably have the same proportion of bigots,racists and anti-european xenophobes in wales as other parts of the uk!
Leigh Richards
swansea
Nice quote in today's Independent on Sunday: "There were more Cowley Street press officers in attendance for the Oldham by-election last month than for the entire operation from Lib Dem headquarters in Barnsley. It was confirmation that the party is no longer able to mop up protest votes, but neither does it know from where its support will come in future."
"Can UKIP make progress in Wales?"
Could they sneak a regional seat? Yes it's possible. Polls have pointed towards that in north Wales but things can change of course.
I don't see them making any significant progress beyond that while they are relying on protest votes and hardened euro-sceptics/unionists. They'll only progress if they embrace devolution and stop thinking Wales existing is some sort of vast EU conspiracy.
I vote UKIP in the UK, and did a double take when I read the party were anti devolution. I thought it must be a misprint. I wish it was.
Good vote, good luck and lets keep fighting for our right to choose our government.
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