Strong, united and independent?

The political adage that one should not read too much into the results of a single by-election is probably as applicable as you can get in terms of outcomes at Oldham East & Saddleworth. As Michael White in the Guardian observes, the result – just like the preamble - has its many contradictions. Not least is the spectacle of pollsters bad-mouthing each other as volubly as the politicos over technique, errors of margin and labyrinthine interpretations. There will doubtlessly be a few all-party grins as know-it-all Peter Kellner of YouGov explains away his earlier disputation that that Labour would be a resounding winner and that Elwyn Watkins could clinch it at the post.

White suggests that the Lib Dems were victims of ‘bad-loser syndrome’ and that calling the by-election was poor timing and poor judgement. This is good hindsight but his suggestion that electors were also motivated by an eagerness to keep the judiciary out of politics is probably stretching things.

The main outstanding question is how and why the tory vote collapsed so spectacularly to levels predicted in the lower range of Populus and ICM polls. BBC chief political correspondent Laura Kuenssberg was insistent on breakfast news this morning that the tory campaign lacked the oomph she associated with her experience of the party's by-election machine. Sky News commentators said pretty much the same thing inasmuch as a series of appearances by Cameron is not the same thing as busloads of workers arriving in the closing weeks. But no-one seemed able to suggest with much authority if disaffected tory voters stayed home or switched to the Lib Dems.

The reaction from the party leaders was fairly predictable although it is the claim by Nick Clegg that the results showed his party to be “strong, united and independent” is the one most open to challenge on all three counts. Still it’s the result that matters, as they say, and further confrontation with tories over bank bonuses and electoral reform are unlikely to damage his cred where it matters.