Sometimes you can hardly see the join

Wading through the weekend press speculation that Conservatives will defer to their junior partners at the forthcoming Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election, the temptation for anti-ConDem forces is to seek further evidence of irreversible political melding. Nothing is more effective in the minds of opposition strategists than the “Vote Lib Dem – Get Tory” mantra - especially when the ruling parties seem so willing to provide confirmation.

Accordingly, slightly partisan observers seize on examples of Nick Clegg’s support for Kenneth Clarke over his enlightened sentencing policy and a loosening of Treasury stays by Chancellor Osborne (rather than twinkle-toes Cable) to allow a “revisiting” of a cancelled loan to Sheffield Forgemasters.

But there were just as many reassuring contra-indications to be found in the past week which included Lib Dem MP Richard Kemp’s description of Communities Secretary Eric Pickles and Housing Minister Grant Shapps as "Laurel and Hardy". Tory ministers were also said to be peeved at the muted yet undisguised celebration among Lib Dem back-benchers at a High Court ruling which concluded Home Secretary Theresa May had unlawfully attempted to "side-step Parliamentary scrutiny" when she introduced a cap on migrant workers last summer.

However, this reluctance among the political protozoa to fully embrace the necessities of coalition government is patently not reflected in the growing empathy between the two embattled leaders and which goes beyond simply feeling each other’s pain as they tackle the hostility of colleagues & supporters but reputedly manifests itself in overt assistance.

Mutual and moral support at executive level is not only to be expected but is almost mandatory in the face of critics who label their respective leader Judas - Cameron over Europe, Clegg over pretty much everything else - and some commentators, for the want of a better example, have quoted parallels with Blair’s public backing for Bill Clinton after the Lewinsky scandal first broke in the US.

This is probably overstating matters and it is not too difficult to see that there is a practical, if not self-serving edge to Dave wanting to get his best mate Nick out of hole. What will worry a number of Lib Dem activists however is that will end up with the PM giving him a bloody big spade just at a time when someone should be taking it out of his hands to stop him digging further. They can imagine Cameron’s arm around his deputy’s shoulders as he murmurs: “Someday – at that day may never come – I’ll call upon you to do a service for me”. But what’s the big deal, anyway? It is not as though Clegg has any qualms about the ‘tough love’ meted out to the public sector, industry and every creature that creepeth about the earth. What’s more, the tuition fees “rebellion” shows that a little ministerial largesse goes a long, long way among his parliamentary party colleagues. Further rightwards morphing by the Lib Dem leader can only be good news both for the coalition and for Tim Farron & Simon Hughes who remain on the same hymn sheet but are increasingly singing the descant version.

Of course, mutual assistance is only possible as long as Cameron’s own political collateral holds good and the eyebrow movement among parliamentary commentators over his recent commitment to get MPs expenses “sorted” is an indication of how many feel this is the kind of hostage to fortune that prime ministers with only six months in office under their belt should not be making. If he succeeds by a slackening of standards then he faces the wrath of the Telegraph. If he fails to deliver, the Ashcroft Tendency will take their revenge.

A fascinating aspect of the Westminster coalition, and the conflicting driving forces within it, is that there a near-infinite number of damaging scenarios capable of emerging which range from the next leak from Liam Fox’s private office to another Lib Dem policy u-turn to Andy Coulson’s eventual exit. All of them will need one leader to show visible & vocal support for the other. Both have shown the expected skills so far but politics is one of those fields of endeavour where a drowning man can be killed by a carelessly thrown lifebelt. It is the extent to which the pair are prepared to sink together – and take their parties down with them – that will be exercising the minds of colleagues as much as the opposition’s.