Considering the poll which suggests 57% would vote in favour of giving the Assembly increased law making powers was conducted before the announcement that Welsh students will be protected from increased tuition fees, those organising the YES campaign must be greatly heartened in their cause.
The only real downside to a series of positive findings in the survey conducted by ICM Research for BBC Wales is that only 37% said they were certain to vote. Although 77% of that figure said they would vote for extra powers, it would be justifiable for some within the pro-devolution camp to nonetheless worry at the extent to which the negativity of the AV referendum, scheduled to be held soon after will rub off on voters.
Given that the electorate can be notoriously unreliable in such matters, it falls to YES campaigners to spend as much time & effort in explaining the separate nature of the referenda as on the benefits they feel will arise from the ability of the Assembly government to quote: “.. make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas it has powers for, without needing the UK Parliament's agreement.”
Muddying the two issues will likely prove to be a lot easier for the NO contingent.
Update: Many thanks for corrections received to the obvious mistake regarding the dates for the Welsh referendum and the AV decision. The phrase was intended to read "same period" and we disagree with the suggestion that voters should merely be left to follow their gut. Such complacency is ill-advised at best.
Update: Many thanks for corrections received to the obvious mistake regarding the dates for the Welsh referendum and the AV decision. The phrase was intended to read "same period" and we disagree with the suggestion that voters should merely be left to follow their gut. Such complacency is ill-advised at best.
8 Comments:
The AV referendum is on the same date as the Assembly election, not the powers referendum!
The AV referendum is being held on the same day - May 5 - as the Assembly election. I happen to think people will vote with their gut instincts rather than any finely tuned constitutional minded sentiment on March 3.
sorry jaxx but im afraid you have got the dates for the two referendums mixed up - the referendum on lawmaking powers for the welsh assembly is on march 3rd...while the AV referendum will actually take place in may on the same day as the welsh assembly elections.
that error aside yes you are right this poll does make very good reading for those of us on the yes side. It not only confirms the findings of the monthly yougov tracking polls in giving the yes side a healthy lead but its results are almost identical to the results of a poll on the issue the BBC commissioned on st david's day...except in this poll support for lawmaking powers has increased slightly while opposition has declined slightly.
So with the launch of the Yes campaign imminent its certainly heartening for those of us on the yes side of the debate to see that support for lawmaking powers for the welsh assembly has not only remained solid over the last 8 months but if anything actually appears to be increasing.
Leigh Richards
Whoops!
The Assembly Primary powers referendum will be in March. The AV referendum is on 5th May, which is the same day as the Assembly elections, not the referendum.
Many thanks for corrections to the obvious mistake regarding the dates for the Welsh referendum and the AV decision. The phrase was intended to read "same period" and we disagree with the suggestion that voters should merely be left to follow their gut. Such complacency is ill-advised at best.
My take is that the four Welsh parties will not be able to collectively deliver a YES vote whilst stabbing at each other in the run up to the Assembly elections. Plaid is already disentangling itself from Labour in some policy areas. A coherent NO campaign could easily do damage by concentrating on hyped fears of additional costs and/or red tape.
while voices urging caution about yes supporters not getting too carried away with all the opinion polls giving the yes side a substantial lead should always be listened too im fairly confident that James D is likely to be proven wrong in his prediction of the referendum outcome.
The four main parties stabbed each other all over the place in last may's british general election without any signs in the polls of this diminishing support for lawmaking powers for the welsh assembly amongst people in wales. Further the official campaigning period of the referendum itself - from january to the beginning of march - will not constitute the run up to the welsh assembly election campaign.....that will take begin at the earliest around the middle of march and of course in april
As regards the possible impact on the referendum result of a 'coherent no campaign' well it has to be said there are certainly no signs of anything like that so far from the self proclaimed no campaigners of true wales......as if the polls are anything to go by true wales is frankly performing dismally so far. While if their only plan of attack is to cite alleged costs that would result from a yes vote they are serious trouble as its been established that ending the current LCO system...which is what a yes vote will do..will actually save the welsh assembly two million pounds a year.
Leigh Richards
I tend to agree with Leigh. "Coherent NO campaign" is an obvious oxymoron.
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