AV - doing it by the numbers

Whilst speculation continues on what aspect of the Comprehensive Spending Review will be the deal-breaker for the ConDem coalition, the Guardian ponders if the Alternative Vote flagship can continue to navigate treacherous waters whilst flying its colours of convenience.

Graphic filched from www.BryantPedia.com

If AV is as misunderstood & misrepresented as the paper suggests then such negative perceptions can be attributed to vilification by press, public and politicians in roughly equal measure. The purists regard the system as a third-rate compromise whilst reactionary wings of left and right regard the bastard offspring of proportional representation as an unwise leap into the pit of dispair. The remainder see AV as the least of all evils in a changing political landscape where peace-time coalitions are in danger of becoming the norm.

Some critics eager to damn the process through guilt by association say it is uncomfortably close to the method used by Ed to slay his brother - although it was actually the byzantine composition of Labour’s electoral college, rather than the counting system, which delivered the outcome. It is also the same voting mechanism that Liberal Democrats use to elect their leader.

What cannot be denied is that narrow, nail biting results will become the norm in many constituencies. Pollsters will increasingly seek refuge in the plus or minus three percent margins of error to explain away unfulfilled predictions whilst the experience from the US & Australia is that parties can look forward to spending as much time in the courtroom as on the stump.

None of the main parties disagree that demography and successive boundary tweaks have contrived to create a surplus of rotten boroughs safe seats to the extent that result of a general election is actually decided in about 120 out of the 650 constituencies. Similarly, there is a tacit understanding that the current imbalance of representative ratios in constituencies throughout the UK needs to be addressed.

What is alarming however is the degree of dissatisfaction among MPs, of all three main parliamentary groups, with respective parts of the reform bill. Whilst an appetite for change remains, the means by which it is to be achieved may be too much for some to swallow. Public suspicion, fed by media babble, that it will all be either too expensive or just unworkable is the sort of thing that parliamentarians are likely to seize upon.

If the right number of votes are not delivered in the House then talk of a referendum is academic. Parliamentary reform would be no more than a cut in the overall number of MPs who will continue to be elected on a first-past-the-post basis. There are still deals left to be done and votes to deliver but, as is in all things in politics, its a lot closer than you think.

Update: Sky News reports that tories failed in their attempts to scupper AV plans