Changing to stay the same?

Polling day is traditionally when media pundits bring out the history books and tally off results from the past as if a detectable pattern of marginal swings and whatnot can actually predict the outcome any better than seaweed and a magnetic compass.

This phenomenon usually means that finding an intelligent analysis of the shifting political picture, especially in Wales, can be hard work. John Stevenson of BBC News tries to be helpful by suggesting that the emergence of a new political dynamic and declining support for Labour in its “traditional heartlands” more or less amounts to the same thing. On the other hand, Caradog argues from deep within the nationalist camp that pluralism is a trait in Welsh culture that has antecedents from medieval times and is seldom far below the surface. Where better, he muses, for a Celtic expression against foreign dominance to express itself than in political struggle. Both articles are neatly presented but they carry the same depth of professional conviction as the stuff they would probably write about homelessness at Christmas.

For those who do not care to make predictions, the most significant indicator, if true, is the report that nearly a fifth of people switched political allegiances after watching the live debates between the party leaders. Assuming that they also actually understood what Bungle, Zippy and George were saying – and that they intend voting – then the future usefulness of political history books in informing contemporary trends will probably  be restricted to how you use one to stuff under the legs of a wobbly reading table.