The Mercutio effect

As the man said, there are polls, focus groups and wishful thinking but the prospect of a hung parliament, as suggested by the Ipsos Mori poll published in the Observer, is one that still cannot be written off it seems.

According to one senior pollster, "... Whether or not there has been a blip among the electorate caused by short-term events such as Labour's surprise win in Glasgow North East, it will not be easy for the Tories to gain the 117 seats they need for an overall majority, never mind the 140 they require for a working majority”.

The article speculates that Labour may be benefiting from a return of a 'feelgood' factor as the country heads out of recession. However what it does not mention is the admission at Central Office that for every percentage point gained by an imaginative and well-packaged tory policy initiative there is an equal & opposite reaction in the form of a deselection row or resignation.

Cameron still has a good lead but his strategists probably expect a further overall narrowing within the next six months. They see that Brown looks like he is going to take things to the wire thus forcing the tories to fight an election on the economy at a time when things might be perceptibly getting better - to sort of coin a phrase. After all, what has he got to lose that isn’t already predicted anyway?

Another question niggling the campaign coordinators must be how much longer voters will remain receptive to continued warnings by party leaders about austerity and political finger-pointing. It’s a tough call, especially as the polls results are based on pretty much this sort of fare and the obligatory step-change may not help.

If the Ipsos poll figures are repeated elsewhere then Brown, Cameron and Clegg are less likely to face media questions on how they would operate under a minority administration as to whether they are willing to embrace a national unity scenario – otherwise known as the ‘c-word’. The substance of their answers could have quite an influence on an electorate that is increasing blind to party colours and less than impressed with politicians generally.

Could the renaissance of Parliament lie with coalition politics? Who knows. But it might be an idea for the good and great at Westminster to start seeking practical tips from their counterparts in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland nonetheless.

Update (23 Nov): Missed this earlier. Nick Clegg says he would rather put David Cameron in Downing Street if the Tories are the largest party after the next election than join a coalition.

Asked about his views on a hung Parliament, Cameron said "anything is better" than another five years of Labour.