Numbers

It must be galling for Cammers and Co that despite a handsome lead in the polls the actual party membership remains in decline. As seen a few months ago, it’s a trend that is affecting all mainstream parties but the Conservatives’ situation spawns inevitable comparisons among political commentators with Labour’s phenomenal surge in signed-up supporters in the days that Blair was preparing for government.

Of course, the problem, as tory strategists know only too well is that whilst things can only get better for some, the slogan “Now for Change” doesn’t exactly resonate with the focus groups let alone the voting public. Let’s face it, there isn’t going to be too much change when the join between New Labour and Old Tory is virtually seamless. The best that the spinners can convey is a message of “Tried that, didn’t really work; now for something else”.

A lack of perceptible conviction-led policies, the stigma of expenses scams and the ever-present emphasis on personality makes it tough on tories trying to find a showcase pre-election idea (which would normally be a promise of stonking great tax cuts). But as parsimony becomes the new political black, the only tangible advantage that David Cameron’s can effectively exploit for the moment is that he is not Gordon Brown.

More than ever the perennial complaint expressed at the doorstep that “all you bastards are the same” has more than a touch of reality. However, this same lack of distinction should also help minimise the trauma for Labour & Lib Dem voters who would otherwise have preferred to lose a limb than vote tory. But whilst Brown’s Crowd and the Cleggite campaign managers try to figure out how to withstand a Conservative squeeze the concern at central office is probably how to take the message to the faithful and the prodigal voters without a sufficient number of ground troops. The election coffers are filling up nicely but even the most skilful ad campaign is no alternative for an ability to deploy the requisite number of workers in the targetted marginal constituencies.

The local effect in Jaxxland, and especially Gower and Swansea West, obviously remains to be seen but the adage of less being more is one that Messers Davies and Kinzett might have to learn to embrace.