Tuesday, 29 September 2009
I might as well reign until December
As sort of predicted elsewhere, Rodders does his own thing by stating that he wants to tie up his successor in knots see through the Assembly's budget process - which means he will not actually stand down until 8 December. No sign of a timetable for choosing his replacement (as yet) which has greatly inconvenienced political commentators who had originally been promised something more definite - albeit by 'sources close to one of the contenders'. So much for timing.
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These cute headlines make me suspect that you have a sub-editor among you. If so, then die in flames and torment you grotesque pig-bastards from the pit of hell (cue screams and gunfire noises). Thanks, feeling a lot better now.
Is it starting to appear that Rhodri is manoeuvring to destroy Carwyn’s chances of a walkover? By concentrating speculation on his presumed imminent retirement then mysteriously falling short of the magic words he has succeeded in drawing out the Edwina Hartites, and forcing some anxious head counting amongst the Lewisites. But the main damage was to the crown prince, Carwyn Jones, who had been fully prepared to declare his candidature on Sunday night and fight a long plotted snap campaign must prevent his rivals from clawing up ground now that the contest is finally receiving media attention.
Assumption up to now has been significantly predicated on the basis that Rhodri wants a smooth and orderly handover to his favoured successor in the portly shape of Carwyn. Albeit 35 years junior, he is after all, in many ways similar to Rhodri, fluently bi-lingual, silk tongued, fiercely pro-devolution without contemplating full independence as a goal. He is one of those Labour politicians who seem to manage to steer left, without ever veering left. To have risen from the rural affairs brief to become the crown prince presumptive was some achievement.
Two years ago, if events in Llandrindod Wells at the fateful Lib Dem conclave had gone differently, Rhodri would happily have handed on the baton to Jones. Now however Rhodri is regretfully contemplating semi retirement (he still plans to remain an AM until 2011) to his own timetable set out five years previously. He is unbeaten, beholden to nobody and he doesn’t appear to take the view that a Carwyn Jones’ coronation is in the Party’s interests.
Although Rhodri may well still find himself voting for him, Carwyn is no longer his creature as in 2006/07. Irritation with the heir presumptive’s efforts to build up his own powerbase and lack of contribution to the Cabinet since he took on the combined Counsel General and Trefnydd brief in 2007, his increasingly close links with senior staff in Transport House, all combined with simultaneous destabilizing briefing by Lieutenant Andrews and Corpulent Taylor – the Goebbels and Riefenstahl of Rhondda TV - could be inclining Rhodri toward the view that a contest might be no bad thing.
For starters Rhodri wants the takeover from him to be as clean as his own assumption was messy. Secondly, a properly policed 3 way contest will provide Welsh Labour with plenty of free air over the couple of months it would last. This could be vital to all candidates, as the outcome of a contested 3 way battle would be greatly dependent on the postal votes of those hard to reach union levy payers who represent the bedrock of Labour’s vote in Wales.
A mature debate that gets the party’s core image across in the course of a leadership election is a tough proposition, but it maybe that this is where Rhodri is aiming to park the bus. He wants it sorted cleanly, before the UK General Election, and he wants a genuine contest within the parameters of the need to avoid perceptions of undermining party unity ahead of the GE, so that UK level recriminations and leadership contests don’t stand in the way of Welsh Labour’s fight back in 2011 under a fresh leader with a firm mandate from her/his Party, actually leading a UK constituent government for Labour and standing up to the Tories in London.
The old Lion is shuffling gently to the sidelines, but cannot resist the temptation to tease the circling contenders for his legacy. He will see the Assembly through the passage of the budget, pointing to a December transition period. He still needs to formally notify his resignation from the post of Welsh Assembly Labour Party Leader. This cannot be long in coming, but with shadow boxing and gentle canvassing now well underway on all sides, despite the Welsh Executive’s ban on campaigning, it is becoming clear to party power brokers that there are other choices on offer, that a shoe-in for Carwyn isn’t the sure-fire outcome and that Labour’s survival as the foremost party in Wales is at stake.
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