One of the vaguely intriguing aspects of the otherwise seemingly endless preamble to Labour’s leadership contest in Wales has been the quiet and largely unremarked exit of finance minister Andrew Davies from the running. Once a name synonymous with succession, his only recent noteworthy involvement in the internal machinations to choose Rhodri’s replacement has been to permit uncorrected but low-key suggestions in the press that he is now backing Edwina Hart.
Some supportive insiders in the Davies camp are saying that his recent hospital stay is behind the withdrawal whilst others with a pragmatic outlook see long-standing mutual hostility with Plaid Cymru as too much of an anti-coalition factor. There is also the nagging issue that his Swansea West seat is now considered highly marginal and that the minister would be advised to put away thoughts of even higher office and spend more time with his majority.
Of course, the same scenario could be projected onto the fortunes of the neighbouring Gower constituency occupied by the battling Ms Hart - who is now embroiled in a drugs war which may be well require her having to perform the acrobatic and politically fatal stunt of doing a u-turn on a banana skin.
Meanwhile, would-be contender Huw Lewis continues to find new & imaginative ways to infuriate opponents, potential supporters and the Western Mail in generally equal amounts whilst amiable, eisteddfod-going Carwyn ambles along nicely; for the moment.
In some respects, it is a dispiriting experience to realise that what is under discussion is how 26 politicians – and a few hundred activists – are going to initially shape a new-ish focus of Welsh Assembly governance. In this context, it is small wonder that some might question if so much attention should be paid to an institution so desperate for new powers and yet so patently lacking the financial clout or possibly the professional expertise to make any sort of real difference to the 600 and something communities that make up the Welsh nation. Then again, as someone once said, it might be an imperfect form of devolved government but it’s our [bleep] devolved government.
Nevertheless, there is no denying that looming leadership contest does have sufficient surreal qualities to make the casual observer wonder if the best outcome would be for Bobby, or Alan Michael, to step out of the shower; allowing us to realise that it was all a dream and that we can start all over.
It’s probably a better ending.
2 Comments:
FWIW my theory is that Andrew is backing Edwina as a 'stalking juggernaut', allowing Andrew to keep his powder dry and avoid appearing over ambitious. I don't happen to believe that Edwina really thirsts for the job. I believe she recognises that she's too controversial and divisive to be the figurehead and more interested in exercising real power. The plan as i see it is to quitely promote Edwina in order to make it clear that there are plenty within the Cabinet as well as the NALP who don't want Carwyn, but don't feel Huw is up to it either. Then in a month's time when Rhodri finally fires the starting gun - assuming he does - Edwina tots up her nominations, union support, canvasses the PLP and realises even Caton won't vote for her, and never having declared announces that she has no ambitions etc ... Andrew then gets urged from all sides to step forward as a unity candidate "for the good of the party, with some reluctance, all I wish is to serve my country blah blah" flanked by both Janes, Leighton, Brian, Carl, Andy Richards etc. All he then has to do is enough to finish second and watch either Carwyn, or more likely How's second preferences fall into his lap!
Just a theory like ...
Entertaining and insightful as it is, I can't see the Democritus scenario coming to fruition myself. Davies is no unity candidate and whilst he will get Andy Richards' backing (ex-Ford and all that) he has to many enemies at Transport House. The external canvassing will put Carwyn in top spot and mayhem will ensue.
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